Visualization of Model Forecasts as Satellite Visible Imagery

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Presentation transcript:

Visualization of Model Forecasts as Satellite Visible Imagery Robert M Rabin, Jack Kain (NOAA/NSSL)‏ V. Lakshmanan (CIMMS University Oklahoma)‏ Collaboration: Jason Otkin, Tom Greenwald CIMSS University of Wisconsin-Madison Russell Schneider, Steve Weiss NOAA/SPC

Purpose: To provide forecasters and NWP model developers the means to view simulated visible satellite imagery from high resolution forecast models with minimal delay. The availability of forecast visible satellite imagery will provide model developers a new means to validate and improve high-resolution forecast models. Current forward models used to simulate visible imagery are computationally intensive and hamper prompt availability of such imagery following forecast model runs.

Approach: We plan to develop a functional approximation to the forward model which will be robust and quick to execute. This development will require training (using a neural net or other nonlinear approach) from a suitable set of NWS forecast model runs and simulated visible imagery from the detailed forward radiative transfer model. The functional approximation will operate on the appropriate microphysical variables available from the forecast model to best match the visible reflectance obtained from the forward scattering model.

Deliverables: The visible imagery obtained from this approach will be made available to NOAA/SPC forecasters on the Web and N-AWIPS workstations for comparisons with observed satellite imagery. Future efforts will explore transfer of this approach to other operational NWS models such as the high resolution RUC (which is run hourly).

Forward model: 2 images/day, computation time ~3hrs Real time Evaluation Forward model: 2 images/day, computation time ~3hrs Statistical model: 18 images, computation time ~1 min Output available on web: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~rabin/vis_wrf

Outstanding Problems: Expected to be completed: Overestimation of thin high clouds Accounting for solar elevation Additional training Choice and weighting of variables Expected to be completed: Availability on N-AWIPS Journal article