AREPS Probability of Detection Validation Project LT Greg Ray OC3570 – Summer 2005

Introduction The Problem Use AREPS to accurately produce a Probability of Detection function for a given environment

Introduction Why is this important Nobody can do it yet Current ability to detect ducts but not predict Predicting ducts gives the war fighter an advantage

Data & Methods Where and how were data collected Shipboard Radiosondes Vaisala RS80 & DigiCORA software Shipboard Met Tower Collect surface environmental data Shore Radar AN/SPS-67 Short-range, two-dimensional, surface-search/navigation radar system

Ship’s SONDE Launches 07220000 07212200

Standard Atmosphere

AREPS - Standard ATM

AREPS – M Units (STD ATM)

AREPS Probability of Detection Standard ATM

AREPS Probability of Detection Standard ATM

Atmosphere from the Cruise

7/21 - 2200

7/21 - 2200

AREPS M-Units 7/21 - 2200

Comparison DUCTS

Outbound Data

AREPS Probability of Detection 7/21 - 2200

7/22 – 0000Z

Sounding #2

AREPS – M Units (7/22 0000)

Inbound Data

AREPS Probability of Detection 7/22 - 0000

AREPS Procedures

Results AREPS & AN/SPS-67 Agree Significant for operational forces POD Functions are very similar Significant for operational forces Can exploit environment Have advantage over enemy Future Work More Validation More Target Platforms/Radar Models

QUESTIONS?