Analysis of Network Outage Reports Cybersecurity and Communications Reliability Division – Public Safety & Homeland Security Bureau John Healy May 2018

Data Source Database snapshot as of April 9, 2018 NORS Final Outage Reports through February 2018 were used in the analysis Excluded Reports DS3 Simplex and DS3 Non-Simplex outages affecting less than 3 DS3s and no OC3s DS3 Non-Simplex outages with 2000 or less DS3 minutes

Frequency Trend Analyses Past trend and seasonality effects Estimates used in trend chart Based on 3-year window (Dec 2014 – Nov 2017) Most recent trend Comparison with past trend Based on 3-year window (Mar 2015 – Feb 2018) Average monthly frequency (12/17 – 2/18) Test if significantly different from expected frequency based on past trend and seasonality effects

Frequency of Outages by Month Monthly Trend 1.0% (down from 1.1%) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 1505.0 Outage Reports (significantly lower than expected)

Outage Index – For All Outages Except OC3-Simplex See ATIS-0100021 Analysis of FCC-Reportable Service Outage Data for a description of the method used to calculate the outage index.

Planned Maintenance Monthly Trend 3.8% (down from 4.6%) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 283.3 Outage Reports (significantly lower than expected)

OC3 Non-Simplex Monthly Trend 0.9% (down from 1.1%) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 755.7 Outage Reports (significantly lower than expected)

Big DS3 Outages

Big DS3 Outages Monthly Trend 0.7% (down from 1.5%) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 57.7 Outage Reports (significantly lower than expected)

12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 156.7 Outage Reports OC3 Simplex Monthly Trend 1.1% (down from 1.2%) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 156.7 Outage Reports

Fiber Cut Monthly Trend flat 0% (unchanged) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 171.0 Outage Reports (significantly higher than expected)

12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 84.0 Outage Reports Monthly Trend flat 0.0% (unchanged) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 84.0 Outage Reports

Very Large E911 Outages Monthly Trend flat 0% (unchanged) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 1.7 Outage Reports

12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 19.3 Outage Reports E911 – Phase 2 Events Monthly Trend 1.9% (down from 2.1%) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 19.3 Outage Reports

12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 100.0 Outage Reports Wireline Monthly Trend flat 0% (unchanged) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 100.0 Outage Reports Wireline outages are all outages for which the Reason Reportable was at least 900,000 wireline user-minutes.

12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 199.7 Outage Reports Wireless Monthly Trend 1.1% (up from 1.0%) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 199.7 Outage Reports

VoIP Monthly Trend 3.7% (down from 4.3%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 196.0 Outage Reports (significantly lower than expected)

12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 12.3 Outage Reports SS7 Monthly Trend -1.8% (up from -2.2%) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 12.3 Outage Reports

12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 7.7 Outage Reports Malicious Events Monthly Trend -2.2% (up from -3.2%) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 7.7 Outage Reports

Malicious Activity The figures for 2018 are through February.

12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 500.3 Outage Reports Hardware Failure Monthly Trend 0.9% (down from 1.0%) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 500.3 Outage Reports

Environmental – External Monthly Trend 0.7% (down from 0.8%) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 184.7 Outage Reports (significantly lower than expected)

Power Failure Monthly Trend flat 0% (down from 0.7%) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 149.0 Outage Reports (significantly lower than expected)

Diversity Failure Monthly Trend -0.8% (down from 0%) 12/17 – 2/18 Monthly Average 43.0 Outage Reports (significantly lower than expected)

Duration Trends: OC3 Non-Simplex The duration of OC3 Non-Simplex outages is statistically unchanged in 2018 compared with 2017 (using a Mann-Whitney test).

Duration Trends: E911 The duration of E911 outages is statistically unchanged in 2018 compared with 2017 (using a Mann-Whitney test). 7

Duration Trends: Wireline The duration of wireline outages is statistically unchanged in 2018 compared with 2017 (using a Mann-Whitney test). 143

Duration Trends: Wireless The duration of wireless outages is statistically unchanged in 2018 compared with 2017 (using a Mann-Whitney test). 14

Duration Trends: OC3 Simplex (excluding outages with duration less than 5 days) The duration of OC3 Simplex outages is statistically unchanged in 2018 compared with 2017 (using a Mann-Whitney test).

Duration Trends: VoIP The duration of VoIP outages is statistically unchanged in 2018 compared with 2017 (using a Mann-Whitney test). 11

Test for Trend in Event Duration Non-OC3-Simplex Outages Data from 3/2015 thru 2/2018 OC3-Simplex Events Only (5 days duration minimum) Data from 3/2015 thru 2/2018 Rank Correlation of duration with date is -.017 and is significant at the .001 level Rank Correlation of duration with date is .051 and is significant at the .001 level Conclusion: Durations of Non-OC3-Simplex Outages have shortened over the period from 3/2015 thru 2/2018. Conclusion: Durations of OC3-Simplex Events have lengthened over the period from 3/2015 thru 2/2018.

NORS Transition Monthly NORS Coordinators Meetings NORS User Manual FCC sent proposed changes to NORS manual to the NRSC for its feedback DS3 Simplex threshold change implemented in December 2017 Implemented going from DS3s to OC3s in January 2018