VERIFICATION – DAY 1 - 73 - CLD: 6.5/10

FORECAST TECHNIQUES (TMP) CLIMO = 80F PERSISTENCE (YESTERDAY) = 74 MODIFIED PERSISTENCE …..

VERIFICATION – DAY 1 - 73 - CLD: 6.5/10 - SC Rain = no - THUN PA = yes WINNERS, WINNERS …… CHICKEN DINNERS …

NAM MODEL FCST – SFC Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) YESTERDAY ? PA

L H PA NAM MODEL FCST – 500 mb. Valid 2 P.M. (18z) YESTERDAY Trough Ridge Axis Trough Axis H

RISING AIR = CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION Ways to produce rising motion: FRONTS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS MOUNTAINS (ORAGRAPHY) CONVECTION

LIFTED INDEX Valid 8 P.M. YESTERDAY

Cloud top Height ? (50,000 ft. vs. 20,000 ft.) 500 mb -15C -10C -15C

MODEL PREDICTED RAIN THROUGH 00Z (8PM) NAM GFS

SFC MAP Valid at 8 p.m. YESTERDAY \

NAM MODEL FCST – 4 panel map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) TODAY

NAM MODEL FCST – SFC map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) TODAY

H PA NAM MODEL FCST – 500 mb map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) TODAY Trough Axis H

SPC An upper-level trough will move across the lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Northeast. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to set up across western parts of southern New England this afternoon where surface dewpoints should be in the 50s F. This will allow a corridor of instability to develop around midday with thunderstorms initiating along the front. This convection is forecast to move eastward across southern New England this afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z in southern New England show 0-6 km shear around 45 kt with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This may be enough for storm rotation within the stronger cells. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats.

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