Turbulence Accidents and NTSB Research Update

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Presentation transcript:

Turbulence Accidents and NTSB Research Update Nathan Doble Turbulence Impact Mitigation Workshop 3 McLean, Virginia – September 6, 2018

US Civil Aviation Turbulence Accidents Accident definition: ≥ substantial damage or ≥ serious injury

Defining Events Ranked by FAR Part General Aviation Part 135 Part 121 1 Loss of Control-Inflight 18% Powerplant Malfunc 15% Turbulence 34% 2 14% Ground Collision 3 Loss of Control-Ground Abnormal Rwy Contact 12% 10% 4 13% 9% Cabin Safety Event 5 Fuel 5% Non-Powerplant Malfunc 8% Ground Handling ⁞ 14 1% 21 <1% 2008-2016 US civil aviation accidents Defining events from 32-category CAST/ICAO taxonomy

Turbulence Types in Part 121 Accidents: 2008-2016

Phase of Flight for Part 121 Turbulence Accidents: 2008-2016

Seasonality of Part 121 Turbulence Accidents: 2008-2016

Part 121 Turbulence Injuries and Aircraft Damage: 2008-2016 6% of accidents resulted in aircraft damage All damage classified as minor Ceiling panels Passenger service units Every accident resulted in at least one serious injury

Part 121 Turbulence Injuries: 2008-2016 Average of 12 serious injuries per year 78% cabin crew 22% passengers Accounted for 45% of all Part 121 serious injuries and fatalities Most recent Part 121 turbulence fatality in 1997

Notes Data current as of Sep. 5, 2018 Coding scheme changed in 2008 Part 121 Turbulence Accidents Part 121 All Accidents CalendarYear AccidentsTotal AccidentsFatal InjuriesFatal InjuriesSerious FlightHours (millions) 1983 5 4 23 15 13 7.299 1984 6 16 1 11 8.165 1985 3 21 7 526 30 8.710 1986 8 12 24 22 9.976 1987 33 232 46 10.645 1988 29 285 57 11.141 1989 9 28 278 68 11.275 1990 39 12.150 1991 26 62 11.781 1992 18 12.360 1993 19 12.706 1994 239 31 13.124 1995 10 36 168 25 13.505 1996 37 380 77 13.746 1997 14 49 43 15.838 1998 50 16.817 1999 51 2 67 17.555 2000 17 56 92 18.299 2001 531 17.814 2002 41 17.290 2003 20 54 17.468 2004 18.883 2005 40 19.390 2006 19.263 2007 19.637 2008 27 19.127 2009 52 17.627 2010 17.751 2011 17.963 2012 17.722 2013 17.718 2014 32 17.752 2015 17.929 2016 18.274 Notes Data current as of Sep. 5, 2018 Coding scheme changed in 2008 Data for 2008 and later includes accidents with turbulence-related cause/factor and/or defining event Pre-2008 data includes accidents with turbulence- related cause/factor

NTSB Turbulence-Related Activities Accident investigations Workshops 2016 Forum and 2017 Special Investigation Report on PIREPs Safety Recommendations to improve weather forecasting and dissemination of weather reports Safety Study in progress: Preventing Turbulence- Related Injuries in Part 121 Air Carrier Operations

NTSB Safety Studies NTSB mandate includes conducting “special studies and investigations about transportation safety” Studies are (in some ways) similar to major investigation Report with safety recommendations Public board meeting to present, discuss, and adopt report and recommendations Address transportation safety issues from a broad, nationwide perspective Title 49 United States Code section 1116

Turbulence Study: Objectives Summarize types and causes of turbulence Detail safety impacts on Part 121 operations Accident characteristics and trends Injury types and mechanisms Examine methods to reduce likelihood and consequences of turbulence encounters

Turbulence Study: Areas of Inquiry Turbulence prediction and detection technologies Resources for planning and conducting flights Air carrier and ATC training, policies, procedures Outcomes of past industry efforts Aircraft technologies

Turbulence Study: Methodology Literature review Analysis of NTSB accident data Analysis of external data on Part 121 turbulence encounters Stakeholder interviews Case studies of turbulence accidents

Turbulence Study: Status Research proposal adopted by Board on September 5, 2018 Contact: nathan.doble@ntsb.gov