On the policy effectiveness of abatement measures Frank de Leeuw 11th AQ EIONET 26-27 October 2006, La Rochelle

Pilot project (TNO, MNP) Testing the methodology on LCPs EURO standards 11th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006 policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw

Three scenarios; three years Reference case Without abatement Measures fully implemented Reference years: 1990, 1995, 2003 11th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006 policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw Methodology Emission = activity times emission factor Activity data per sector: ESTAT, RAINS EF: RAINS, LCP Directive Pollutants: SO2, NOx, NMVOC 11th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006 policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw Methodology LOTOS-EUROS model 1990 Unab ref MFR 2003 11th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006 policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw NOx Road transport & EURO standards 11th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006 policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw NOx Stationary combustion & LCP 11th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006 policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw EURO standards & NOx 11th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006 policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw LCP Directive & SO2 11th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006 policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw LCP Directive & SO2 11th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006 policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw Ozone (annual mean) 11th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006 policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw Validation? SO2 trend 11th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006 policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw Validation? 11th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006 policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw

policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw Conclusion Work in progress but promissing Better validation Extend analysis with CO Cost data Impact Other directives (e.g. solvent) Explore more local scale (national) 11th AQ EIONET 25-26/10/2006 policy effectiveness, Frank de Leeuw