project management complexity hard systems and soft systems PROFESSOR ROBIN MATTHEWS KINGSTON UNIVERSITY BUSINESS SCHOOL LONDON RANEPA MOSCOW MOSI YOSHKAR-OLA ECONOMIC STRATEGIES PRESIDENT OF THE LEAGUE OF CORPORATE STRATEGY AND ACCOUNTING http/www.robindcmatthews.com http://www.tcib.org.uk/about.html http://kpp-russia.ru 2/18/2019 robindcmatthews.com

Complex adaptive systems can self organise spontaneously 1. continuous and dynamic interaction within and between levels of hierarchy 2. Non-linear interactions that are unpredictable; the scale of effects can’t be predicted for example. 3. Positive and negative feedbacks. 4. Large numbers of elements 5 open and closed systems 6. Co-evolution. 7. Unpredictable patterns emerge which become attractors influence future directions. 8. Attractors may be orderly or chaotic. 9. Far from equilibrium. 10. No single entity has complete knowledge of the system. 11. Path dependence. 12. adaptation through learning imagination. 13. Unpredictable time lags

The global economy as a complex adaptive system   The direction of the economy emerges from the interaction of many dispersed and interdependent units (firms, institutions, people, demographics, urbanization, cultures, religions, ethnicities personalities and so on) in parallel. The action of any one unit depends on the state and action of others units. The global economy has many levels of interaction; coalitions at many levels ranging from teams to business units and mergers. Tangled interactions (associations, communications) occur within and between levels. Coalitions are building blocks. They are recombined and revised continually as the system accumulates experience and adapts. There are many niches created by new technologies that can be exploited by adaptation. Thus large and small local and global firms coexist and coevolve on the global economy; glocalisation. There is no universal super-competitor, such as the USA or China or massive corporation or institution that can fill all niches; often they are helpless, global terrorism for example. There are so many niches serving many purposes and needs the system operates far from equilibrium or optimum. Despite the talk about progress and world growth recent developments have seen a resurgence of real politique; struggle for resources, struggle for dominance

Complex systems Defined by the length of the string required to describe them

Evolution and change TYPES OF SYSTEM CHANGE TTYPES OF ypest Random no pattern Normal distribution Bell shaped or approximately so Fat tailed distributions change on all scales possible; Black Swans Deterministic predictable iff imformation perfect Chaotic Deterministic but CDIC Catastrophic Singularity and great extinctions Self ordered criticality Attraction to tipping points; major (phase) transitions. TYPES OF SYSTEM CHANGE Change refers to the transition between one system state and another. Evolution is change directed by processes of natural selection and random mutation change Evolution 2/18/2019

Hard problems Problems well defined Assumption of definite goals & solutions Can pre-define success criteria Technically/operationally oriented Soft problems Difficult to define - they are problem situations High social, political & human activity component Wicked

Systems Thinking Necessary and sufficient conditions guide development of the conceptual model in particular human systems require A Measure Of Performance A Decision Making Process Components Which Interact Actions That Are Transmitted Through The System And Interacts With Wider Systems It To Be Bounded From The Wider System Resources At The Disposal For Process Adaptability Sub Systems/Component Systems Satisfy The Same Criteria

organization grammar conceptual Action 2/18/2019 robindcmatthews.com