Demographic Change Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 1.2 ESPON Internal Seminar 2012 “Territorial Development Opportunities in Europe and its Neighbourhood Fostering Global Competitiveness” Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 1.2 Demographic Change

Population in EU and its neighborhood in 2030 Stimulus map Population in EU and its neighborhood in 2030 The European population is increasing slowly over time. A trend of East-West polarisation of the pattern of demographic development is visible, mostly due to negative migration balance in Eastern Europe. Migration plays a key role for population growth in Europe. Europe is getting older. In 2030, the median age in some regions will exceed 50 years. Towards 2030, population growth will be significantly higher in countries neighbouring Europe to the South which may sustain a particular migratory pressure on Europe.

Workshop 1.2 – key questions for ESPON projects What are the main territorial trends or observations from your project - for Europe, its regions and cities - in relation to “population development, migration flows, labour market and social inclusion”? Please select maximum 2 maps from your project and include maximum 5 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question. Maximum use 3-4 slides for showing ESPON evidence on this question. 2. How do developments in Europe’s neighborhood influence the territorial development in Europe and vice-versa (according to your mind / your ESPON findings)? Please include maximum 3 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question, as much as possible based on your project results and on the case studies developed.  Please use 1 slide to answer to this question. 3. What opportunities and challenges exists for Europe and its neighbourhood for increasing competitiveness through further cooperation and integration? (according to your mind / your ESPON findings)? Please include maximum 3 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question.   Please use 1 slide to answer to this question.  

Europe’s neighbourhood influence Population growth 1990-2010 No divide – thus no “pressure” – between Espon / and ENRs; rather, a differentiation between Western Europe / central Europe & Eastern Neighbourhoods / Southern Neighbourhoods. Major contrast in the Eastern part, with Turkey as a key point. A lower contrast between Western Europe and Maghreb regions. ENRs are experiencing the territorial evolution that Espon space formely experienced: rapid urbanisation, coastal concentration  potential cooperation for planning and regional development

Europe’s neighbourhood influence Dependency ratio A ratio with two very different components: vis-à-vis the younger (high dependency in the Eastern Mediterranean) / and the elder (high dependency in Espon & in Eastern Neighbouring space) The Southern ENCs are experiencing the ‘demographic gift’ for the coming two decades The demographic structure is converging at high speed between Espon space and its Neighbours Internal contrasts are high within ENCs: e.g. Turkey (West v. East), Algeria (coast v. inland), Morocco (large cities v. rest of country).  

Europe’s neighbourhood influence Migrations Migration in the Region: a key issue for both Espon space (needs for higher professional mobility) and ENCs (Euro-pean economic & cultural inputs), yet poorly addressed Europe is loosing the battle for attracting the ENCs’ qualified labour forces. Only 1 out 6 high level Jordanians students enrolled abroad come to Espon. The majority of the high skilled East Mediterranean people living abroad live in Northern America. Except singular countries such as Lebanon, outmigration of skilled people is not a brain drain but win-win.  

Opportunities and challenges for Europe Human development 2000-2011 HDI: Eastern Neighbours are recovering after the hard 1990s; Mediterranean Neighbours keep on improving. ENCs: disparities decrease vis-à-vis Espon space. Education component: Med ENCs benefit from their long run effort – but need further cooperation for adapting to labour market needs Life expectancy: recovery in the Eastern Neighbourhoods is for Russia only. Many fields of actual & potential cooperation in health issue with Southern Neighbours Income / inhab.: in the South improvement are not sufficient to cope with the employment needs.