Infotrak Harris Poll July 2011 Prepared by Infotrak Research & Consulting A member of Harris Interactive Global Network June 2011

The Methodology

The Methodology A sample of 2400 respondents was interviewed to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,000,000 translating into a margin of error of -/+ 2.0 at 95% level of confidence. The survey was conducted in all regions of Kenya The sampling frame was developed using population proportionate to size. The sample was further split into key demographic groups i.e. by region, age and gender. The key administrative boundary was district of residence which was further split into both urban and rural Sampling technique adopted was purposive, random and systematic. This was done so as to ensure that that every respondent who was 18 years and above was given an equal opportunity to participate. From the same sample, specific attention was given to both male and female living in urban and rural Kenya Fieldwork was conducted through face to face interviews The survey was conducted between 26th - 27th May, 2011

Margin of Error explained Margin of error decreases as the sample size increases, but only up to a certain point. A very small sample, such as 50 respondents, has about a 14 percent margin of error while a sample of 1,000 has a margin of error of 3 percent. By doubling the sample to 2,000, the margin of error only decreases from +/-3 percent to +/- 2 percent and +/-1.8 percent for a sample size of 4000. This illustrates that there are diminishing returns when trying to reduce the margin of error by increasing the sample size. What is imperative is to ensure that the sample is representative of the universe you wish to cover. This is why in a continent the size of USA, most sample sizes range between 1000 -3000 covering the entire population. And the results are more or less accurate. A 95 percent level of confidence is the acceptable standard for social surveys.

Margin of Error Illustration

The Sample distribution Region County DISTRICT SAMPLE Nairobi 1. Nairobi Nairobi West 60 Nairobi East 100 Nairobi North 90 Westlands 40 Coast 2. Mombasa Mombasa 3. Kilifi Kilifi 75 North Eastern 4. Garissa Garissa 5. Wajir Wajir West Eastern 6. Isiolo Isiolo 7. Meru Igembe 8. Machakos Embu Machakos 120 Kangundo Central 9. Nyeri Nyeri South 105 10. Muranga Muranga north 11. Kiambu Ruiru Rift Valley 12. Turkana Turkana North 13. Transnzoia Transzoia West 14. Uasin Gishu Eldoret West 15. Nandi Nandi North 16. Nakuru Nakuru 165 Molo 17. Kericho Trans Mara 45 Kipkelion Western 18. kakamega Kakamega South 65 19. Vihiga Emuhaya 70 20. Bungoma Bungoma West Nyanza 21. Kisumu Kisumu East 22. Homabay Rachuonyo 23. Kisii Kisii Central 24. Nyamira Nyamira

The Constituencies Sample distribution Region Constituency Nairobi Starehe Dagoretti Westlands Langata Kasarani Makadara Embakasi Coast Changamwe Kisauni Likoni Mvita Bahari Kaloleni Ganze Eastern Isiolo North Isiolo South Igembe South North Imenti Central Imenti Manyatta Gachoka Masinga Machakos Town Kathiani Mwala Kangundo Region Constituency Central Kieni Tetu Othaya Nyeri Town Kangema Mathioya Kiharu Juja Maragwa Kandara Thika Gatundu North Mathira Gatundu South Rift Valley Nakuru Town Molo Naivasha Turkana North Turkana Central Eldoret East Eldoret North Kipkelion Ainapkoi Belgut Aldai Tinderet Kwanza Region Constituency Western Bumula Nambale Saboti Kwanza Malava Lurambi Shinyalu Emuhaya Butere Webuye Kanduyi Nyanza Kisumu Town East Kisumu Town West Kisumu Rural Muhoroni Karachuonyo Kasipul Kabondo Bonchari Kitutu Masaba West Mugirango North Eastern Dujis Lagdera Wajir North Wajir West

The Key Findings

Re-election of the current Members of Parliament in the next general elections Do you intend to re-elect your current Member of Parliament come next year’s general elections?

Majority of Kenyans; 63% indicated they do NOT intend to re-elect their current Members of Parliament in the next years elections Survey results reveal that more urban dwellers (67%) as compared to their rural counterparts (33%) do not intend to re-elect their current members of parliament in the next years elections Gender analysis shows that more males (59%) than females (41%) do not intend to re-elect their current MPs N = 2400 Do you intend to re-elect your current Member of Parliament come next year’s general elections? Those who do NOT intend to re-elect their current Members of Parliament come next year’s general elections? [BY Gender & Location]

Majority of Kenyans; 81% who do not intend to re-elect their current members of parliament are mainly the youth (18 to 35 years) n = 1512 Those who do NOT intend to re-elect their current Members of Parliament come next year’s general elections? [BY Age]

Of Kenyans who do not intend to re-elect their current MPs, majority are drawn from Nyanza, Western and Eastern regions Regions that recorded high incidence levels of those who indicated they do not intend to re-elect their current Members of Parliament include; Nyanza (77%), Eastern (74%) and Western (67%) regions On the other hand, N.Eastern and Coastal regions recorded the lowest incidence levels of those who indicated they do not intend to re-elect their current Members of Parliament at 44% and 56% respectively Highest intention Lowest intention Do you intend to re-elect your current Member of Parliament come next year’s general elections? Base 2400

Reasons for and against the intention of re-electing the current Members of Parliament in the coming elections Reasons why they intend to re-elect their current MP in the coming election Reasons why they do not intend to re-elect their current MP in the coming election n = 1512 n = 887 n = 1512

Reasons for the intention of re-electing the current Members of Parliament in the coming elections Reasons why they will re-elect their current members of parliament Nairobi Coast N.Eastern Eastern Central R.Valley Nyanza Western Good management of Constituency Development Fund 69% 71% 40% 58% 59% 57% 61% 60% Not Biased 44% 17% 77% 19% 31% 38% 16% 15% Fights corruption 8% 9% 10% 6% 5% Unites People 3% 7% 4% Active in parliament proceedings 0% 2% Charismatic 1% Base 90 71 56 132 100 225 103 111

Reasons against the intention of re-electing the current Members of Parliament in the coming elections Reasons why they will not re-elect their current members of parliament Nairobi Coast N. Eastern Central R. Valley Nyanza Western Undelivered promises 56% 49% 61% 57% 51% 53% Poor management of CDF 7% 21% 10% 28% 16% 20% 44% Corrupt 12% 30% 0% 18% 19% Not easily accessible to constituents 5% 2% 11% 13% 3% 22% General poor leadership 6% 8% Poor or lack of participation in parliamentary proceedings 4% 1% Arrogance Old Base 154 120 95 226 171 383 176 188

Kenyans say on the standards of living How would you compare the standards of living between today and one year ago?

The standard of living is worse today than a year ago; this according to 84% of Kenyans surveyed At least 80% of Kenyans surveyed across 7 regions affirmed that the living standards have become worse today as compared to a year ago Compared to the other 7 regions, Central province recorded the lowest incidence at 73% How would you compare the standards of living between today and one year ago? Base 2400

Other key reasons include; Most Kenyans; 45% cited improved infrastructure development as one of the areas that have changed for the better 22% of those surveyed indicated that the political stability of the country has changed for better in the last one year; 9% of those surveyed cited the new constitution as having improved the environment Other key reasons include; Free education Economic growth Creation of job opportunities Increased funding to CDF Base 72 If better than before, what would you say has changed to the better?

84% of the surveyed Kenyans mentioned living standards have become worse than a year ago High & rising cost of living was cited by 79% as the main reason why respondents mentioned the standards of living today have become worse than a year ago with 23% mentioning lack of employment opportunities 7% indicated the slow implementation of the constitution as the reason they said mentioned the standards of living today have become worse than a year ago Base 2016 If worse than before, what would you say has changed to the worse?

Effects of escalating fuel & food prices on Kenyan’s lifestyles Has the escalating fuel and food prices had any effect on your lifestyle?

91% of the surveyed Kenyans said the escalating fuel and food prices have had an effect on their lifestyle More urban dwellers (93%) than their rural counterparts (89%) stated the escalating fuel and food prices have had an effect on their lifestyle More males (92%) than females (90%) said the escalating fuel and food prices have had an effect on their lifestyle Has the escalating fuel and food prices had any effect on your lifestyle? Those who said the escalating fuel and food prices had had an effect on their lifestyle?

Nearly all of Kenyans surveyed indicated the escalating fuel and food prices had an effect on their lifestyles The incidence of those who said the escalating fuel and food prices have had an effect on their lifestyle was high across all regions North Eastern and Eastern regions recording the highest incidence level at 96% and 95% respectively; Central province had the lowest incidence level on the same at 83% Has the escalating fuel and food prices had any effect on your lifestyle? Base 2400

40% of Kenyans mainly attribute the increased general cost of living to the escalating fuel & food prices Spending more on fuel and food has resulted in; Tight household budgets leaving no room for engaging in leisure activities and purchasing luxury items Inability to save for future ventures Reduction in business opportunities due to customers’ unwilling ness to spend Relocation especially in urban areas due to inability to consistently pay rent n = 2184 If yes, what effect has escalating fuel and food prices had on your lifestyle?

On the other hand, the pessimistic lot were mainly drawn from; Overall, 53% of the surveyed respondents indicated that they are optimistic that the Kenyan economy will improve Majority of those that are optimistic that the Kenyan economy will improve were mainly drawn from; North Eastern and Eastern regions both at 59%; On the other hand, the pessimistic lot were mainly drawn from; Nyanza and Western recording the lowest incidence levels at 44% and 46% respectively Most optimistic Least optimistic On a scale of 1-5, how optimistic are you that the Kenyan economy will improve?

Demographics

REGION Base 2400

GENDER Base 2400

AGE Base 2400

EDUCATION LEVEL Base 2400

LOCATION Base 2400

About Infotrak

About Infotrak Infotrak Research is a professional research company that was founded in 2004 following the vision of the founder to provide the Pan African Market with suitable information solutions required to sustain the needs of the ever-growing economies. Headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, Infotrak also has offices in Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria and field contacts in more than 12 other countries in Sub Saharan Africa. The firm, which is currently one of the fastest growing in the region, attributes its rapid growth not only to innovation, high level of professionalism and dynamism, but also on the excellent caliber of personnel who have been described by many as “Business minds who specialize in research. Whilst Infotrak has already carved a niche in market research, the firm’s reputation in Social research has quickly gained impetus. Today, Infotrak is one of the most authoritative pollsters in Kenya, providing political opinion polling under the Infotrak Harris Poll flagship brand. In 2007, Infotrak became a global network affiliate of Harris Interactive, the 12th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market research methods. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiaries Novatris in France and Media Transfer AG in Germany, and through a global network of independent market research firms.