UNDP International Human Development Indicators: development indicators (for example, education, health, economic inequality) for 195 countries 1980 - 2010 World Bank World Development Indicators: 213 „economies” from 1960 – 2010 Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index: 2006, 2008, 2010 offers „a snapshot of the state of democracy worldwide for 165 independent states and two territories—this covers almost the entire population of the world and the vast majority of the world’s independent states (micro states are excluded).” Freedomhouse Democracy Scores: „The survey includes both analytical reports and numerical ratings for 194 countries and 14 select territories... each country and territory is assigned a numerical rating-on a scale of 1 to 7-for political rights and an analogous rating for civil liberties; a rating of 1 indicates the highest degree of freedom and 7 the lowest level of freedom.” Transparency International Perceptions of Corruption Global Index: „The 2010 Corruption Perceptions Index shows that nearly three quarters of the 178 countries in the index score below five, on a scale from 10 (highly clean) to 0 (highly corrupt). These results indicate a serious corruption problem.”

TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL CORRUPTION INDEX 2009

Data sources common to worldwide indicators include: -- Surveys of firms, households, and individuals -- Expert assessments from commercial business information providers, non‐governmental organizations, and public‐sector organizations

EIU 2010 III Political participation 27. Voter participation/turn-out for national elections. (average turnout in parliamentary elections since 2000. Turnout as proportion of population of voting age). 1 if consistently above 70%; 0.5 if between 50% and 70% 0 if below 50% 28. Do ethnic, religious and other minorities have a reasonable degree of autonomy and voice in the political process? 1: Yes; 0.5: Yes, but serious flaws exist; 0: No 29. Women in parliament: % of members of parliament who are women 1 if more than 20% of seats; 0.5 if 10-20%; 0 if less than 10% V Civil liberties 45. Is there a free print media? 1: Yes; 0.5: Pluralistic, but state-controlled media are heavily favoured. There is high degree of concentration of private ownership of national newspapers; 0: No 46. Is there freedom of expression and protest (bar only generally accepted restrictions such as banning advocacy of violence)? 1: Yes; 0.5: Minority view points are subject to some official harassment. Libel laws restrict heavily scope for free expression; 0: No

The following changes were made to the 2010 edition of the survey: Freedomhouse Democracy Scores: „The survey includes both analytical reports and numerical ratings for 194 countries and 14 select territories... each country and territory is assigned a numerical rating-on a scale of 1 to 7-for political rights and an analogous rating for civil liberties; a rating of 1 indicates the highest degree of freedom and 7 the lowest level of freedom.” The following changes were made to the 2010 edition of the survey: Kosovo – Kosovo was removed from the list of territories and added as an independent country due to the handover of governance functions from the international community to domestic authorities, and as a result of its recognition by a significant number of states, most of which are classified by Freedom House as Free or Partly Free. Chechnya – Chechnya was dropped as a separate territory, and developments in this jurisdiction are now being addressed in the Russia report, due to the consolidation of power by pro-Kremlin forces, which have effectively eliminated any viable, active independence movement.

World Bank Measure of „Political Stability” Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism „Capturing perceptions of the likelihood that the government will be destabilized or overthrown by unconstitutional or violent means, including politically‐motivated violence and terrorism.”

Worldwide, political instability is the rule, rather than the exception.

I examine the relationship between political stability and elite unity in contemporary Europe.

This presentation addresses two questions: To what extent are the elite unified? To what extent is elite unity associated with political stability? Data: IntUne (Integrated and United), a survey data set with political, economic and media elites as the units of analysis from 16 countries of Europe in 2007 and 2009. I analyze political and economic elite interviewed in 2007 and media elite interviewed in 2009.

Three Issues of European Integration General (mix of social, economic and political) Scale from European unification has already gone too far to European unification should be strengthened (range from 0 – 10) Political The powers of the European Parliament ought to be strengthened (range from Strongly disagree to strongly agree) Economic The character of the European Union in 10 years. Tell me whether you approve or disapprove of a unified tax system for Europe (range from Strongly disapprove to strongly approve)

European Unification (0 – 10) Strengthen European Parliament (1 – 4) Means Country European Unification (0 – 10) Strengthen European Parliament (1 – 4) Unified Tax System (1 – 4) Austria 7,63 3,35 2,90 Bulgaria 6,41 2,92 3,01 Czech Republic 5,46 2,51 2,22 Denmark 6,89 2,69 2,02 France 7,05 2,98 3,34 Germany 7,11 3,38 2,79 Great Britain 4,74 2,34 1,20 Greece 7,30 3,43 3,49 Hungary 6,81 2,87 Italy 3,24 3,19 Lithuania 7,02 2,73 Poland 6,59 2,75 2,54 Portugal 3,04 2,80 Serbia 6,09 3,10 2,88 Slovakia 6,30 2,57 2,01 Spain 7,94 3,31 3,08

European Unification (0 – 10) Strengthen European Parliament (1 – 4) Standard Deviations Country European Unification (0 – 10) Strengthen European Parliament (1 – 4) Unified Tax System (1 – 4) Austria 1,95 0,75 0,96 Bulgaria 2,48 0,82 1,03 Czech Republic 2,64 0,94 0,90 Denmark 2,53 1,15 0,95 France 1,96 0,91 Germany 1,90 0,79 1,06 Great Britain 2,45 0,99 0,42 Greece 2,52 0,80 0,78 Hungary 2,09 0,92 0,88 Italy 2,16 1,20 Lithuania 1,86 Poland 2,30 Portugal 2,21 0,98 Serbia 2,19 0,84 Slovakia 2,11 1,05 Spain 1,63 0,66 0,74

Strengthen European Parliament Means Elite Type European Unification Strengthen European Parliament Unified Tax System Political 6,71 3,01 2,59 Economic 6,76 2,86 2,76 Media 6,86 3,02 2,75 Standard Deviations European Unification 2,33 0,88 0,94 2,02 0,86 2,19 0,89

Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Score 2008 Country Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Score 2008 (0 – 10) World Bank Data Political Stability 2009 (-2,5 to + 2,5) Austria 8,49 1,13 Bulgaria 8,16 0,79 Czech Republic 7,02 0,47 Denmark 8,19 0,92 France 9,52 1,04 Germany 8,07 0,55 Great Britain 8,82 0,85 Greece 8,15 0,30 Hungary 8,13 -0,06 Italy 7,44 0,60 Lithuania 7,98 0,53 Poland 7,36 0,66 Portugal 7,30 0,91 Serbia 8,05 Slovakia 6,49 -0,50 Spain 7,33 0,89

Relationship between Democracy and Political Stability

Hypothesized Relationship between Elite Unity and Political Stability

Fig. 1 Relationship between „Strengthen European Parliament” (standard deviations) and Political Stability (World Bank data)

Fig. 2 Relationship between „Unified Tax System in 10 Years” (standard deviations) and Political Stability (World Bank data)

Fig. 3 Relationship between European Unification (standard deviations) and Political Stability (World Bank data)

Main Findings -- Overall, evidence for the relationship between political stability and elite unity is not strong. In fact, in Europe it is the opposite as hypothesized: the greater the political stability, the greater the elite disunity. -- The relationship between political stability and elite unity depends on the issue. -- There are also some between country differences in degree of elite unity that neither democracy nor political stability influences.

Conclusions -- Findings could be artifact of the questions, which are about particular policy measures rather than about the fundamental “rules of the game.” -- In Elite Unity Theory, there are two types of united elite: an ideologically united elite who are not allowed to disagree, and a consensually united elite, who are allowed to disagree, but not about basic “facts” such as Western style democracy and free market capitalism.