Overview of Censuses in the Western Balkans during the 2010 round Jean-Michel Durr 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Date and Type of Census In 2011, following the EU Regulation, except: Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, canceled Bosnia and Herzegovina in October 2013 Mostly traditional censuses Slovenia (register-based) and Turkey (combined register+survey) Usually every 10 years, following international recommendations, with exceptions due to war 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Censuses in Western Balkans Country Census ref. date Type of census Census Population Previous censuses Albania 1-Oct-2011 Traditional* 2 831 741 1989, 2001 Bosnia and Herzegovina 01-Oct-2013 3.531.159 1991 Croatia 31-Mar-2011 4 284 889 1991, 2001 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 30-Sep-2011 (canceled) 2.1M (est.) 1991, 2002 Kosovo under UNSR 1244 1 739 825 1981 Montenegro 620 029 1991, 2003 Serbia 7 186 862 Slovenia 1-Jan-2011 Register based 2 050 189 Turkey 02-Oct-2011 Combined** 76 667 864 1985, 1997 * Face to face with interviewers ** registers + survey 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Census Laws Census law in every country to provide the organization and execution of the census: Definitions: population... Topics covered Date Organisation, competencies of census bodies Obligation to respond, confidentiality Budget... Some flaws in the census laws: lack of flexibility on the date, confidentiality, references to the statistical law, obligation to answer, role and composition of commissions... 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Census Cost Average cost per capita: 5.6 € (exc. Slovenia and Turkey) Funding supported by international cooperation, except for Montenegro and FYROM 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Communication Special population groups targeted (minorities) Multimedia (TV, radio, billboards, web, SMS, social networks …) Confusion publicity / communication Need to develop communication strategy (media, political leaders…) Median cost in the UNECE region 2% 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Organization Institute of Statistics to define methodology Involvement of government and local authorities in the organization: national, regional and municipal census commissions: Supervision Appointment of field staff Logistics Reception of material … Need to clarify the role of the Municipal Commissions, unclear in some countries: support or control? 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Questionnaire Follow the International and European Recommendations Definition of population based on usual residence (12 months or more) Issue of Diaspora (specific questions or questionnaires) Include sensitive question on ethnicity, religion and mother tongue: Open question: or closed: Obligatory or not 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Ethnicity, Religion and Mother tongue Country Ethnicity Religion Mother tongue Type of question Obligatory? Albania Open No Closed Yes Bosnia & Herz. Open* Croatia Semi-Open FYROM Kosovo** Montenegro Serbia Slovenia - Turkey 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017 * Open question with boxes for the 3 constituent people ** under UN Security Resolution 1244

Cartographic preparation Cooperation NSO and Geodetic administration Use of orthophotos, satellite images GIS in some countries (Albania, Kosovo) Average size of EA : 100 Households in Urban areas, 80 in rural areas 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Enumeration Two weeks except Albania (4 weeks) Field staff: Supervisor > Controllers > Enumerators Monitoring using innovative methods (SMS) Albania Bosnia & Herz. Croatia FYROM Kosovo* Montenegro Serbia Enumerators 11 712 19 089 13 943 15 694 4 980 3 900 36 559 Controllers 2 330 2 509 1 950 1 496 870 461 4 471 Ratio 5 8 7 10 6 * under UN Security Resolution 1244 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Data processing Manual data entry in Kosovo, Montenegro and FYROM Optical Character Recognition: Albania, Croatia, Serbia and Bosnia- Herzegovina Is OCR really cost-effective for population under 10 million considering the preparation time? Editing-imputation: heterogeneity of methodology (manual vs automated, imputation of missing data (Albania and Kosovo only), imputation technique) and IT implementation 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Evaluation Albania PES - From 14-28 Nov. on a sample of 0,9% of total EAs Net under-coverage: 3.8 % Bosnia & Herzegovina PES - on sample of 1,0% of total number of 240 EAs Net over-coverage: 5.6 % Croatia PES - From 2-10 May on 1,4 % of households Not published FYR of Macedonia PES planned on 1% of households N/A Kosovo under UNSR 1244 PES - From 18- 24 April on a sample of 0.5 % of the population Net under-coverage: 2.3 % Montenegro PES - From 19-26 April on a sample of 1,0 % of EA Serbia PES - From 22 Oct. – 5 November on sample of 250 EA (0, 6 % of EAs Net over-coverage: 1.5 % Turkey No evaluation - 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Dissemination Preliminary results published within a few months (enumerated population) Final results published 12 to 21 months after the census Publications (paper and downloadable) Tables accessible on the web 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Dissemination Country First results Thematic reports Excel Tables User defined tables Albania Yes Migration, Gender, Living Condition and Inequality, People and Work, Population Projections No Bosnia and Herzegovina Main results + others in preparation Croatia Education, Households and fanilies, Disabilities, Economic activity The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia N/A Kosovo under UNSR 1244 Main results, Living conditions, Migration, Gender and Ethnicity, Households, Women, Agriculture, Socio-economic characteristics, Labour marjet, Education, Dewllings and buildings, Population projections Montenegro Children Serbia Ethnicity, Age and sex, Education, literacy and computer literacy, religion, language and ethnicity, Marital status, Fertility, Economic activity, Disability, Migration, Households, Commuters, Families, Occupations, Industry, Sources of livelihood, Comparative 1948 - 2011, Housing units, Dwellings Slovenia Regions Turkey Main results 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Suggestions for next censuses Rework census laws Sensitive questions: are they necessary? Issue of diaspora to take into account Data collection: use handheld devices (tablets) Clarify the role of Census commissions Improve communication strategy Quality and Evaluation: PES and quality reports Improve Editing and Coding (methodology and IT implementation) GIS: for cartographic preparation AND dissemination Dissemination more effective (online user-friendly tools) 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017

Jean-Michel Durr jmdurr@jmstat.com Thank you Jean-Michel Durr jmdurr@jmstat.com 1st meeting of the TCG Group - Budapest 15 June 2017