South Monaghan Public School Historical and Projected Enrolment January 2013

Overview Board policy BA-1.2 the 2012 Annual Accommodation Plan historical enrolment factors considered in projecting enrolments projected enrolment

Board Policy BA-1.2 annual Board review of pupil accommodation

Annual Accommodation Plan Monitoring South Monaghan Public School enrolment for a number of years for a possible accommodation review accommodation plan updated May 2012 2012- 2014 South Monaghan PS review enrolment trends and determine need to consolidate into Millbrook/South Cavan PS, Roger Nielson PS and North Shore PS

Census Data Township of Cavan-Monaghan 1996 2001 2006 2011 15 Year Change Total Population 8,252 8,453 8,828 8,601 +349 persons (average 23/yr) % Aged 0-14 yrs 22.5 20.6 17.8 14.4 decrease % Aged 15-64 yrs 66.0 68.2 68.9 70.9 increase % Aged 65 yrs + 11.6 11.3 13.3 14.7 Median Age 36.4 39.1 42.5 45.9 Total Private Households 2,700 2,840 3,020 3,095 +395 households (average 26/year) % One-person Households 11.9 13.4 13.1 15.0 % Households - couple with children 42.4 43.3 36.6 34.4 % Households - couple & no children 36.5 35.7 37.3 40.1 Average Household Size 3.0 2.9 2.7

Census Data Township of Otonabee-South Monaghan 1996 2001 2006 2011 15 Year Change Total Population 6,749 6,669 6,934 6,660 -89 persons (average -6/yr) % Aged 0-14 yrs 22.1 19.3 16.0 13.2 decrease % Aged 15-64 yrs 65.1 66.6 68.9 70.2 increase % Aged 65 yrs + 12.6 14.1 15.0 16.7 Median Age 37.7 41.3 44.3 47.6 Total Private Households 2,335 2,405 2,570 2,520 +185 households (average 12/yr) % One-person Households 15.6 16.9 % Households - couple with children 40.9 36.2 33.1 29.8 % Households - couple & no children 34.7 38.3 41.1 43.5 Average Household Size 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6

Demographic Trends a concentration of population & higher growth in larger urban areas growth in immigration & a decline in natural population increase a declining fertility rate an aging population a declining number of persons per household a decline in public elementary and secondary enrolment

South Monaghan PS Historical ADE 2002 to 2011 MCSC 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 204.00 203.75 187.25 183.00 171.25 152.00 138.75 142.00 135.50 107.25 109.00 % UTZ 100% 92% 90% 84% Under-utilized 75% 68% 70% 66% 53%

South Monaghan PS Projected ADE Enrolment MCSC Actual Oct 15 2012 FTE 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 204.00 100.00 94.00 97.00 84.00 82.00 % UTZ 49% Under-utilized 46% 48% 41% 40%

Projected Enrolment

Factors Considered Current enrolment Demographics Development activity PPS, Provincial Plans Official Plan(s)

Conclusion South Monaghan PS has had a declining enrolment trend South Monaghan PS is projected to continue to be under-utilized and this is reinforced by a variety of information sources