POS 2041: American Politics Today
Exam Reminder Exam #4 (cumulative final exam) Dec. 12th 12:30pm In this classroom There will be a study guide for this exam Will be posted today!
Current Political Condition After the 2018 Election, split government Republican president Donald Trump Republican Senate (53 R’s 47 D’s) Republican House (235 D’s to 199 R’s) Power split at the state level US Governors 27 R’s 23 D’s
One Undecided House Race Only 1 House race still undecided… and it might take a while! North Carolina 9th Congressional District
One Undecided House Race An actual legit case of election fraud! In-person voter fraud is incredibly INCREDIBLY rare – near zero (but not actually zero) Where you see any fraud is with absentee ballots And that seems to have happened here
One Undecided House Race
One Undecided House Race
One Undecided House Race
One Undecided House Race Something weird seems to have happened in Bladen and Robeson counties… Bladen county seemed to have a far higher than usual number of absentee ballot requests and they voted strangely strongly Republican Nationwide it is almost an accepted fact that Republicans win Election Day but Democrats win mail-in/early votes In both Bladen and Robeson a larger than usual number of absentee ballots were never returned, far larger that everywhere else in the state
One Undecided House Race Of course none of this proves any fraud, it could have just been a weird election…
116th Congress The 116th Congress will be begin Jan. 3rd 2019 What should we expect from the new Congress? Not much Divided Congresses rarely results in any major legislation or actions
The States While not much may happen in DC, states might see some significant policy changes
The States
The States Public opinion is shifting quickly, marijuana is likely to be legalized in NY, NJ, and ILL within a year
2020
2020 Only 699 days until Election Day 2020! Already talking about the next election? We just had one! Trump is highly likely to be the Republican nominee But who will be his opponent?
2020 There are a LOT of potential Democrats Like a WHOLE lot! Below are people who have hinted at or have been mentioned
2020 Most, if not all, Democrats who want to run for President will announce their candidacy by April/May of 2019 Most announcements will come far sooner
George H.W. Bush
George H.W. Bush 41st President of the US (1989-1993) Vice President to Ronald Reagan Head of the CIA Ambassador to China* Ambassador to the UN Member of Congress from the Texas 7th district Oil business Yale, played 2nd base in the College World Series Navy pilot in WWII
George H.W. Bush A Presidency of highs and lows
1988 Presidential Election Versus Democrat Michael Dukakis Today looked back on as one of the nastiest elections of all time https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y
Presidency of Bush Again, a lot of highs and a lot of lows Oversaw the fall of communism and the USSR, ending the Cold War Worked to stabilize Europe and former Soviet nations Decisively won the Gulf War Oversaw an economic downturn and cut a deal with Democrats on tax increases “Read my lips: No new taxes!”
1992 Presidential Election Due to raises taxes Pat Buchanan primaried Bush, Bush won but it showed his weakness High approval ratings caused many Democrats not to run The worsening economy greatly hurt Bush Ross Perot ran as an Independent Polled around 15-20%
1992 Presidential Election Why did Bush lose? Perot won 19% of the vote, but research suggests he drew an equal amount from both Clinton and Bush Taxes? “roughly two-thirds of those voters who cited Bush's broken "No New Taxes" pledge as "very important" (25%) voted for Bill Clinton.”
Any Questions? You, what’s your question?