Forage Situation and Outlook Ken Barnett Wisconsin Dells August 27, 2008

What is the forage supply and prices in 2008? What will the forage supply and prices be in 2009?

Forage Acres and Production

The U.S all hay production in 2008 is forecast at 148 million tons, down 2.35 million (1.6%) from 2007 due to lower harvested acres. The yield is expected to be 2.45 tons per acre, up from 2.44 tons per acre in 2007. Harvested acres are forecast at 60.4 million acres, down from 61.6 million (1.9%) last year.

Wisconsin all hay production in 2008 is forecast at 4 Wisconsin all hay production in 2008 is forecast at 4.8 million tons, up 300,000 tons (6.6%) from 2007 due to higher yields. The all-hay yield is expected to be 2.20 tons per acre, up from 1.95 tons per acre in 2007. Harvested acres are forecast at 1.95 million acres, down from 2.02 million (3.5%) last year.

Roughage-consuming animal units (RCAUs) in 2008/09 are estimated to be up slightly from 2007/08. With hay production down and RCAUs up, hay supply per RCAU is 2.34 tons, compared with 2.29 tons in 2007/08.

Hay Stocks

Hay Prices

The U.S. weighted average price received by farmers for all hay was $133 per ton in 2007/08, up 20.9% from $110 in 2006/07. The alfalfa hay price in 2007/08 was $138 per ton (+22.1%), compared with $113 in 2006/07.

The weighted average price received by farmers for hay other than alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures was $120 per ton in 2007/08, up 16.5% from $103 in 2006/07.

22% 16%

Wisconsin Hay Prices July 2007 July 2008 % Increase Alfalfa Hay 60.00 115.00 92 Other Hay 40.00 75.00 88

U.S. Hay Prices July 2007 July 2008 % Increase Alfalfa Hay 137.00 177.00 29 Other Hay 113.00 130.00 15

What will the forage supply and prices be in 2009? What will winter 2008-2009 be like? What will the hay acres in the U.S. and Wisconsin be? Will there be a “normal” growing season? What will the production in the U.S. and Wisconsin be?