CHALLENGES TO GROWTH: HOW TO RE-ENFORCE COMPETITIVENESS IN THE REGION

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Presentation transcript:

CHALLENGES TO GROWTH: HOW TO RE-ENFORCE COMPETITIVENESS IN THE REGION KURT BAYER AUSTRIA CONNECT, BELGRADE MAY 31, 2017

THE CONCEPT 2. Empirical Overview of Individual Countries 1. Drivers of Growth and Competitiveness for the Region Political Stability Macroeconomic Environment Innovation/Industrial Strategy 2. Empirical Overview of Individual Countries 3. Assessment for the Region. 4. Some Important Strategy Elements Infrastructure Regional Agreements Finance Vertical vs. Horizontal Policies DI and Value Chains Overall Conclusions

Country Status 1

Country Status 2

Capital Inflows Sources: Financial Flow Analytics Database. Zsoka Koczan, Late to the game? Capital flows to the Western Balkans, IMF Working Paper, WP/17/92.

Assessment of the Region/1 Low Competitiveness (10% CA deficit) Low Export share (around 20%), mainly in low-tech and medium tech industries Only CRO, SRB, B-H, MAK well integrated into intl. Production networks High technical and administrative barriers Infrastructure lagging behind: roads better, rail bad Education not geared to industrial requirements Low participation rates, high Unemployment (around 23%) Finance: high NPL and rising, high real interest rates, low credit volume Net Capital inflows positive (not enough FDI) Fiscal depreciation (increasing VAT rates, lowering I and CI taxes)

Assessment of the Region/2 Innovation Issues Strategic issue: make and/or buy innovation Low R&D Personnel High share of low-innovation industries Integration into global value chains

Strategic Directions Individual strategy development by country, depending on strength of economy, diversification, state of technology Prioritze structural (i.e. industrial/innovation) strategies over macro Strengthen regional cohesion: improve infrastructure connectivity (transport, communication, electricity and trade) Finance: Fix banks by NPL reduction, incentives for innovation finance, incentives for productive use of remittances Dual education systems with modern curricula which firms need Improve absorption of technology by firms to instead of creation Base Industrial Policy on existing resources and strengths, value chains Improve public administration (anti-corruption, subsidies, taxes, implementation, quality of regulation)

Thank You https://kurtbayer.wordpress.com