Abu Dhabi Transport System John Thomas Different from yesterdays products, everyone has operated, beneficiary. Instead of a summary, I wanted to focus on something that makes you stop and think. Decided to show how concepts in class come together to influence automobiles today.

Outline Transport System Introduction Analysis Summary Masdar overview Assumptions System Model Analysis Uncertainty Decision Tree Lattice Analysis Summary

Masdar Overview Masdar is a planned city in Abu Dhabi City will rely entirely on renewable energy (like solar) Zero carbon, zero waste No gasoline engines Use a mass transportation system

Simplifying Assumptions Problem is too difficult to solve directly Small subset of the problem was analyzed Many simplifications made Rough first-order approximation Transportation system consists of: Electric subway cars Tunnels and tracks Nominal fee per passenger Consumer demand Value of system Object of political debate Focus on calculating several metrics NPV, return on investment, capital expenditure, etc.

System Model Tunnels Tracks and subway cars Consumer demand Must be dug at the beginning Tracks and subway cars Can be purchased and installed anytime Consumer demand Not directly controlled Input to system

System Design Definitions Fixed design System capacity is constant Initial Investment Dig all tunnels Install track Buy all subway cars Flexible design Maximum capacity predetermined Actual capacity variable Install more track Buy more subway cars

Outline Transport System Introduction Analysis Summary Masdar overview Assumptions System Model Analysis Uncertainty Decision Tree Lattice Analysis Summary

Uncertainty Principle uncertainty is demand Commonly measured in passengers per day Historical figures from Boston and New York Expect around 50,000-100,000 passengers per day Increase of around 0.3-5% per year Standard deviation of around 5-7% per year Masdar assumptions 75,000 passengers per day in first year Increase of 5% per year Standard deviation of 10% per year Did not model uncertain uncertainty!

Decision Analysis First stage Second stage Decision: fixed or flexible Chance: low, medium, high (demand) Second stage Decision: expand flexible design Chance: decrease, same, increase (demand)

Decision Analysis Results Flexible design better in almost all cases

Lattice Analysis Uncertainty Model:

Lattice Results Evaluate closure option

Outline Transport System Introduction Analysis Summary Masdar overview Assumptions System Model Analysis Uncertainty Decision Tree Lattice Analysis Summary

Summary Flexible designs were slightly better in this case Uncertainty is very important to model Without uncertainty, flexibility isn’t very useful Advantageous to compare multiple criteria Political debate regarding “correct” criteria Illustrate whole picture, show trade-offs