Tornado Outbreak Modeling

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Presentation transcript:

Tornado Outbreak Modeling Caroline MacDonald Project Goal: The development of an error growth function for forecasts of tornadic severe weather outbreaks using a high-resolution mesoscale model.

General Background Information WRF-ARW = Weather Research & Forecasting Model (Advanced Research WRF)

Generalized Timeline Determine favorable tornado outbreaks Download NARR data NARR = North American Regional Reanalysis Build WRF-ARW code fitting our parameters to run 12 km spatial resolution, 30 sec. temporal resolution Once all of our simulations have run, will analyze the data to hopefully form an error function

How to Achieve This Goal Five major tornado outbreak simulations. Each outbreak will contain ten randomized initial conditions with five different lead times tested (24 hr., 48 hr., 72 hr., 96 hr., and 120 hr.) 250 total simulations Can utilize OpenMP, MPI, or a hybrid version here when building our code.

Why is This Important? Forecasters need to have the ability to accurately predict tornadic outbreaks several day in advance. Meteorologists currently have limitations when it comes to medium-term predictability of outbreaks. This project could help address these challenges in medium-term forecasting of outbreaks.

Questions? Contact Info: Caroline MacDonald cnm306@msstate.edu