Workplan for the development of multi-risk analysis (WP7) A. Garcia-Aristizabal
Objective “to develop a quantitative framework for multi-hazard and multi-risk analyses to assess risks associated with gas shale exploration and exploitation activities”
Objectives (specific) To implement an effective mechanism to identify and structure scenarios of risk interactions and cascading effects, taking into account the phase of development of the project: Drilling Hydraulic stimulation Production Abandonment To develop and implement physically-based, probabilistic tools for the assessment of the likelihood of occurrence of interrelated risk scenarios considering: Induced seismicity Ground water pollution Air pollution NaTech-like accidents
Objectives (specific) To implement the developed framework in one of the study case. To perform a comparative analysis between the impacts of shale gas operations and the impacts related to exploitation of alternative energy sources.
WP7 structure Task 7.1 Identification and structuring multi-risk scenarios (AMRA, KeU, KNMI) Task 7.2 Development of a probabilistic framework for the assessment of impacts associated with shale gas operations adopting a multi-risk perspective (AMRA, KNMI) Task 7.3 Comparative analysis of the impacts of shale gas operations with the impacts associated to conventional gas and oil sources (KNMI, AMRA, KeU)
Workplan for the development of multi-risk analysis
Framing the problem
Framing the problem
Framing the problem
Framing the problem
Primary risk receptors considered
Primary risk receivers considered
Primary risk receivers Above surface Below surface
Framing the problem Risk receptors Atmosphere Local communities Underground water Surface water ... Major hazard Multi-risk OUTCOMES Spills, Leaks Structural damages Blowout ... paths sources
Multi-risk analysis Main characteristics: Scenario identification and structuring using event trees, fault trees and bow-tie analysis (for different phases). An approach based on key physical phenomena contributing to risk (precursor based?) Use of (simplified) Integrated Assessment Models Quantitative assessment based on Bayesian data analysis.
1. Scenario identification Scenario identification and structuring using event trees, fault trees and bow-tie analysis.
2. Integrated assessment models Use of (simplified) Integrated Assessment Models
Integrated assessment models
Bayesian approach Hierarchical Bayesian approach
Bayesian approach Hierarchical Bayesian approach
Bayesian approach Hierarchical Bayesian approach