Aero Club of Washington William Voss President/CEO June 30, 2009

Worldwide Commercial Jets Major Accidents Worldwide Commercial Jets 1998 – 2008 This chart shows both the number of Major accidents and the major accident rate for commercial jet aircraft in losses per one million departures for the last 10 full years, plus this year to date The major accident numbers are for both Eastern and Western built aircraft The rate is only for Western built aircraft because, even though we have the number of major accidents for Eastern built aircraft we do not have reliable worldwide exposure data to calculate rates for them * Reliable worldwide departure/rate data not available for Eastern-Built Aircraft Source: Ascend

Major Accident Rate Western-Built Commercial Jets* 1997 – 2008 Accident rate per million departures This chart shows both the major accident rate in accidents per one million departures and the 5 year running average of that rate for commercial jets Again, this chart is only for Western built aircraft since it involves rates As you can see, the recent decreasing trend has leveled off * Reliable total departure data not available for Eastern-Built Aircraft Source: Ascend

Breakdown: Accident Categories The term “accident categories” refers to a generic classification of accidents. Referring to these families helps an operator to: Structure its safety activities and set priorities. Avoid « forgetting » key risk areas, when a type of accident does not occur in a given year. Mobilise concerned people around well-identified prevention opportunities. Be more proactive by creating links in databases between safety reports and generic accident categories. Address systematically and continuously these accidents in the airline’s annual prevention programme. Although some categories may not have appeared in the accidents, operators should not dismiss efforts needed to prevent these types of events as they may reoccur if work to develop awareness and prevention strategies is weakened. IATA Safety Report 2008 CEO & COO Brief

Regional Rate: Western-built Jet Hull Losses The Map above presents the Regional Accident Rates for Western-built Jet Hull Losses per million sectors flown. These are assigned by the State of the Operator involved in the accident. IATA Safety Report 2008 CEO & COO Brief

What it Looks Like to the Public

20 August — Spanair Madrid

22 September — XL Airways Perpignan, France

20 December — Continental Denver

15 January — US Airways New York

12 February — Colgan Air Buffalo

25 February — Turkish Airways Amsterdam

20 March – Emirates Airlines Melbourne

23 March – FEDEX Tokyo

1 June - Air France 447

30 June – Yemenia 626 Comoros

NEW TRENDS

The Biggest Killer Used to be CFIT

Now it is Loss of Control The Biggest Killer Now it is Loss of Control

LOOKING TO THE FUTURE

The Future is Inescapable We are in the middle of an explosion of the world's middle class About 70m people a year globally are entering this wealth group Accelerating to 90m a year by 2030 In 20 years 2bn people will have joined the ranks of the middle class Source: Chief economist, Goldman Sachs, July 2008

ICAO IATA Revised Forecast

Where Traffic Growth will Occur Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast

What about the Regulator? 190 state regulatory agencies “With respect to aircraft operations, approximately half of the audited states have an insufficient number of flight operations inspectors to adequately perform safety oversight of civil aviation activities.” ICAO

RESPONSES

Safety is Information Driven Share the information Protect the information Act on the information

Share the Information Between competitors Between segments of the industry Between regulators

Safety is Information Driven Share the information Protect the information Act on the information

Protect the Information Public demanding more accountability Prosecutions becoming frequent Direct interference with safety investigations becoming an issue

A Balanced to be Maintained Safety Justice Accountability Punishment Redress Data Protection Reporting

Flight Safety Foundation Criticizes Prosecutorial Interference With Accident Investigation The Flight Safety Foundation sharply criticized the interference of prosecutors in ongoing aviation accident investigations in Italy and France, warning that such interference hampers efforts to improve aviation safety and prevent similar accidents in the future

Joint Resolution Regarding Criminalization of Aviation Accidents

Legislative Protections Flight Safety Foundation Calls for Stronger Protection of Volunteered Aviation Safety Information FSF today endorsed the creation of a “qualified exception” from discovery of voluntary self-disclosure reporting programs, similar to the protection already provided in U.S. law against the use of Cockpit Voice Recorder …

Safety is Information Driven Share the information Protect the information Act on the information

Act on the Information Update old rules with new information Fatigue Risk Management Build on the substantial existing science Training in this century, for this century Create meaningful standards that reflect the real world Respond to emerging trends Are yesterdays scenarios still today’s threats?

Summary The accident rate is starting to increase The causes are shifting Growth is inevitable and we are not positioned to handle it Safety information is the key, but it must be shared, protected, and acted upon Time to act on fatigue and training without regard to past constraints