Early Early Warning Prof. B. de Gaay Fortman

………... ………. ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ……….

………... ………. ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement

………... ………. STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement

………... ………. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement

………... ………. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement

………... ………. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -partiarchy -nationalism INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement

………... ………. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -partiarchy -nationalism HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist policies -conflict in the past INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement

………... ………. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Divisive ideologies Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Divisive leadership Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. Refugees CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -partiarchy -nationalism HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist policies -conflict in the past INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement Revenge

………... ………. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Divisive ideologies Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Divisive leadership Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. Refugees CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -partiarchy -nationalism HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist policies -conflict in the past INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement MILITARY -arms proliferation GEO_POLITICAL SITUATION -global -regional Revenge

………... ………. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Divisive ideologies MEDIA -propaganda -press freedom Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Divisive leadership Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. Refugees CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -partiarchy -nationalism HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist policies -conflict in the past INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement MILITARY -arms proliferation GEO_POLITICAL SITUATION -global -regional Revenge

………... ………. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Divisive ideologies State control MEDIA -propaganda -press freedom Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Divisive leadership Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. Refugees CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -partiarchy -nationalism HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist policies -conflict in the past INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement MILITARY -arms proliferation GEO_POLITICAL SITUATION -global -regional Revenge

………... ………. CIVIL SOCIETY -trade unions -churches -political parties Quality of Politics ECONOMIC ORDER STATE -effective presence -legitimacy -entitlement systems -collective sector Divisive ideologies State control MEDIA -propaganda -press freedom Relative deprivation theory Resource mobilization theory Entitlement systems analysis ECONOMIC STRUCTURE Poor resource base (pressure on resources) Indices on productivity & entitlement Indicators: HDI (related to GDP) Population -composition -land carrying capacity Income distribution -quintiles ratio Divisive leadership Stylised fact INTRA-STATE VIOLENCE in different manifestations ………... ………. Refugees CULTURAL IDENTITY FACTORS -ethnicity -religion -partiarchy -nationalism HISTORICAL CONTEXT -colonialist policies -conflict in the past INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORDER -Supra-state shifts in entitlement MILITARY -arms proliferation GEO_POLITICAL SITUATION -global -regional Revenge

POOR PROTECTIVE Security Vulnerability Access to Justice ECONOMIC Macro: growth/stability Micro: Assets Opportunities POLITICAL-JURIDICAL Rights Influence Freedoms BASIC SERVICES Health Education Nutrition SOCIOCULTURAL Status Dignity Contacts (social capital) POOR

THE CRUCIAL ROLE OF THE STATE Environment: Economy Polity Society THE CRUCIAL ROLE OF THE STATE Private Law (Property, contract, etc) Institutions (communities, associations) State Health Education Talent Character Capacities Activities ACQUIREMENT (failure) Claims Entitlements