Theresa May, Brexit and the 2017 General Election: The Political Suicide of an Economic Policy Agenda

Presentation Organisation Part One – Economic Policy Agenda prior to 2017 General Election Objectives for Economic Policy Narrative of ‘Works for all’ Two case-studies of May government economic policy agenda Part Two - Post 2017 General Election Political Barriers What if?

The Economic Policy Objectives of the May government To deliver Brexit ‘Brexit means Brexit’ Hard Brexit To develop a novel economic policy programme Political reasons

Narrative – ‘Works for All’ ‘We need a bold, new positive vision for the future of our country – a vision of a country that works for not a privileged few but for every one of us’ ‘Burning Injustices’ November 2016 speeches

Institutional Dimensions Industrial Strategy Spatial Dimensions Sectoral Dimensions Institutional Dimensions “Works for All”

Fiscal Rules and Infrastructure Investment New fiscal rules introduced Looser fiscal policy Allowed space for infrastructure investment But not end of austerity Infrastructure investment National Productivity Investment Fund

Politics and the Queens Speech and Brexit Queens speech emblematic of May’s political weakness. Break down in relations with DUP Backbench rebellions Unwilling to take on traditional political allies Impact of Brexit on economy and public finances expected to be serious negative shock. Likely coupled with considerable rise in borrowing Brings tensions with industrial strategy and infrastructure investment, both needs serious cash. Conflict with fiscal rules.