Probabilistic Human and Wildlife Health Assessment

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Presentation transcript:

Probabilistic Human and Wildlife Health Assessment GoldSim Probabilistic Human and Wildlife Health Assessment

What did the model do? Used food webs to estimate contaminant transfer. Examined all the data using probability (0-1). Allowed us to test different assumptions of exposure. Previous models used “worse case” assumptions. Previous focus was the 0.9-0.95 range.

Receptors Examined mammals and avian food webs for wildlife exposure to contaminants. Examined the exposure of contaminants to humans from a combination of the two food webs and local media, and background sources. Examined a gradient of exposure for humans using different spatial locations

Receptors - Mammals

Receptors - Avian

Receptors - Humans Examined 4 pathways of exposure: Ingestion: including food items, water and soil Inhalation of local air Dermal absorption from local soil Inhalation of particles from the soil Examined different assumptions for consumption of local meat, fish and garden vegetables. Used Probabilistic inputs (BW, IR) from Richardson (1997) and Alberta Health and Wellness (2007) for Ingestion rates.

Receptors- Human life stage analysis Completed analysis using the time duration of each developmental stage. Infant = 0.5 yr Toddler = 4.5 yr Child = 7 yr Teen = 8 yr Adult = 56 yr

Receptors- Arsenic Results for Humans Results indicate: CR greatest risk of cancer. Caused by ingestion of local vegetation, local fish and store bought meat. HT greatest risk for aboriginals, caused by ingestion of poplar creek water.