Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal Research

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Presentation transcript:

Challenges for the Baltic regional environment: Changing climate and pollution patterns Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal Research GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany BALTEX Science Steering Group (BSSG) "Climate variability and change in the Baltic Sea area" 12 November 2001 at KNMI, De Bilt BALTEX Science Steering Group (BSSG) "Climate variability and change in the Baltic Sea area" 12 November 2001 at KNMI, De Bilt

BALTNET Global Change, Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Influences in the Baltic Sea Catchment - Towards a Baltic Research Area Energy and Water Cycles Pollutants Climate Nutrients Carbon Impacts Policy issues BALTNET

Applied research advising society and policy about … State of the regional environment Short-term and long-term change Perspectives of future change Options of future (sustainable) use e.g., agriculture, forestry, fishery, traffic, tourism, deposition of substances IPCC, HELCOM

Dimensions Physical /dynamical Chemical / ecological Historical /geological Economical / political Sociological

Institut für Küstenforschung Physical /dynamical dimension Institut für Küstenforschung I f K

Institut für Küstenforschung Physical /dynamical dimension Institut für Küstenforschung I f K

Institut für Küstenforschung Physical /dynamical dimension Institut für Küstenforschung I f K WASA index for storm intensity in the Baltic Sea region

Institut für Küstenforschung Physical /dynamical dimension Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Observed river runoff, maximum ice extent and derived net precipitation 1901-1988 (from Rutgersson et al., 2001)

Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Annual anomalies of daily max (Tx), min (Tn) and daily range (DTR) of temp in Fenno-Scandinavia (Tuomenvirta et al., 2000)

Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Anomalies of mximum ice extent, 1720-1997, in the Baltic Sea. Note a change point in 1877, (Omstedt et al., 2001)

Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Observed (solid) and reconstructed (dashed) salinity in the upper 50 m. Reconstruction with wintertime SLP field. From Zorita and Laine, 2000.

Institut für Küstenforschung Physical /dynamical dimension Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Components of the climate system. (Hasselmann, 1995)

Institut für Küstenforschung Physical /dynamical dimension Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Consistency of regional change in precipitation in different climate model scenarios. (consistency: 7 out of 9 scenarios agree)

Institut für Küstenforschung Physical /dynamical dimension Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Bergström, et al., 2001 HadCM scenario Temperatur (oC) ECHAM scenario Niederschlag (%)

Chemical / ecological dimension Relevant substances: Heavy metals POPs SO2 Pollen Greenhouse gases Nutrients

Calculated depositions of lead (Costa-Cabral, 2000) deposition Chemical / ecological dimension 1995 Calculated depositions of lead (Costa-Cabral, 2000) deposition

Institut für Küstenforschung Chemical / ecological dimension Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Lead deposition flux at Storelung Mose, Staaby, Denmark estimated from peat profile measurement and dating (red) [Goodsite et al., 2001] and using coupled computer models of regional climate and atmospheric transport and deposition (blue).

Institut für Küstenforschung Chemical / ecological dimension Institut für Küstenforschung I f K model estimate

Chemical / ecological dimension

Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Concentration of Cd, Ni, Zn and Sn bound to suspended matter along the river Elbe Prange, Aulinger, pers. comm. October 1993 and September 1998

Historical / geological dimension The case of the historical climate anomaly during the Late Maunder Mininum, 1675-1710, in the North Sea and Baltic Sea region.

Historical / geological dimension effective solar output

Institut für Küstenforschung Historical / geological dimension Institut für Küstenforschung I f K

Late Maunder Minimum 1675-1710 vs. 1550-1800 Historical / geological dimension Late Maunder Minimum Model-based reconstuction Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al. 1675-1710 vs. 1550-1800

The economical, political and sociologocial dimension

Economical / political dimension

Sociological dimension

Summary Physical science has made sufficient progress to allow for the application of the knowledge constructed during BALTEX. Lack of complete knowledge must be dealt with by making the remaining uncertainties explicit. It should not prevent from applying the available knowledge This does not imply that all problems would be solved, but that uncertainties have been reduced considerably by BALTEX.

Assessing State of pollution Speed of climate change Discrimination between anthropogenic and natural climate change Providing scenarios of Mitigation of pollution Adaptation to change Optimal use of resource „regional environment“ Application of knowledge about the Baltic catchment regional environment

Institut für Küstenforschung Physical /dynamical dimension Institut für Küstenforschung I f K correlation Links between atmospheric circulation and sea level variations in the Baltic Sea. (Heyen et al., 1995)