1 Evaluation of projections submitted in 2006 national plans under the National Emission Ceilings Directive (preliminary results) Anne Wagner

2 Progress towards emission ceilings Analysis [Member State projections, DTI assessment, GAINS comparison] NO x / SO 2 / NMVOC/ NH 3 Summary of key findings

3 Analysis undertaken Member States own projected emissions in 2010 have been analysed and compared against emission ceilings A distance-to-target analysis has been undertaken to illustrate current progress to meeting emission ceilings A comparison has been undertaken of GAINS model emission projections (using national energy projections) for 2010 against Member States own projections

4 Summary – progress to ceilings (22 MS aggregated)

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6 DTI indicator DTI example – NOx DTI indicator NOx emission ceiling

7 NMVOC Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) and Projections for the 2010 targets in the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (2001/81/EC)

8 NH3 Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) and Projections for the 2010 targets in the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (2001/81/EC)

9 SO2 Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) & Projections for the 2010 targets in the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (2001/81/EC)

10 NOx Distance-to-target indicator (in index points) and Projections for the 2010 targets in the National Emissions Ceiling Directive (2001/81/EC)

11 Summary – progress to ceilings(1) NMVOC emissions –MS projections: Denmark, France, Spain, Portugal project emission values exceeding their target; France will meet their ceiling under WAM –DTI analysis: majority of MS (19 out of the 23 considered) on track to meet their ceiling. Denmark, Spain, Portugal, and Poland are currently above their linear target path –GAINS comparison: GAINS estimates estimates tends to be lower than Member States projections in most cases. NH 3 emissions –MS projections: Germany and Spain will not meet their ammonia ceiling with current policies and measures. Germany will meet their ceiling under WAM –DTI analysis: majority of MS (19 out of 23) are currently on track to meet their emission ceiling. Finland, Denmark, Germany and Spain are currently above their linear target path, –GAINS comparison: Germany predicts exceedance while GAINS suggests otherwise. Slovakia, Denmark and Belgium all predict no exceedance; GAINS suggests otherwise

12 Summary – progress to ceilings(2) SO 2 emissions –MS projections: Only Netherlands exceeds the emission ceiling in 2010 (even under WAM) –DTI analysis: Spain, Malta and Cyprus are above their linear path –GAINS comparison: analysis suggests that WM projection for France exceeds ceiling by over 30% NO x emissions –MS projections: 10 / 22 countries exceeding ceiling under WM; Germany, Malta and Netherlands meet ceiling under WAM whereas Austria, Belgium, France exceed ceiling under WAM; Denmark, Italy, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden exceed ceiling under WM but do not provide WAM –DTI analysis: more than half of MS (mainly EU15) above target path. Of EU15 only Italy, Germany and Finland on target –GAINS comparison: estimates suggest that NOx ceilings may be even more difficult to meet than predicted