Acid Rain Cooperation in Europe

The Problem Svante Oden (1968): “The Acidification of Air and Precipitation and its Consequences.” SOx, NOx -> transported over the continent ->form acids in precipitation or dry form Damage to health, forests, lakes, soils, ecosystems – particularly in Sweden, Norway International environmental externality

The Actors Leaders: Sweden, Norway 1972 Conference on the Human Environment Laggards: UK, Germany, Communist Eastern Europe

The Breakthrough 1975 Helsinki Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe USSR and US interested in détente Environment the most convenient object of cooperation Scandinavians saw an opportunity, so did Canada The UN Economic Commission for Europe –lead agency Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention (LRTAP), 1979 EMEP Protocol (1984)

More Lead Actors West Germany: the death of the Black Forest 30% club: Scandinavians, W. Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Canada, France The First Sulfur Protocol (1985): 30% of 1980 emissions by 1993

The Protocols The Nitrogen Oxides Protocol (1988) VOC Protocol (1991) Freeze emissions at 1987 levels by 1995 VOC Protocol (1991) 30% of emissions (base b/w 1984 and 1990) by 1999. The Second Sulfur Protocol (1994) Differentiated targets bases on critical loads for acidification for 2000 and 2010;technology standards The Protocol on Heavy Metals (1998 ) The Protocol on POPs (1998) Gothenburg Multipollutant Protocol (1999)

Regulatory Innovation Critical loads: “the highest load that will not cause chemical changes leading to long-term harmful effects on the most sensitive ecological ecosystems” (Levy 1995, p. 61). Why negotiate on the basis of critical loads estimates?

Critical Loads for Acid Deposition (red-high sensitivity, blue –low)

The RAINS Model Integrate science in international policy Emissions module Cost module Dispersion module Effects module (critical loads)

Second Sulfur Protocol: Correlation of SO2 Emission Ceilings and RAINS Recommendations

Second Sulfur Protocol (1994) 60% gap closure against critical loads Differentiated targets Requirement to apply Best Available Technology (BAT), achieve up to 90% desulfurization of emissions from large sources

The Gothenburg Protocol (1999) Multiple effects: Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone Multiple pollutants: emission ceilings for SOx, NOx, VOCs and ammonia (NH3) by 2010 Based on RAINS outputs Emission limits for large combustion sources, dry cleaning, cars, trucks based on BAT If implemented, Europe’s sulfur emissions should be cut by 63%, its NOx by 41%, VOC by 40%, and ammonia by 17% compared to 1990.

Gothenburg Protocol: Correlation of SO2 emission ceilings and RAINS Recommendations Model Input vs. Protocol: SO2 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 J1 (final scenario from RAINS) Protocol (accepted terms) Poland Bulgaria Romania Spain German y France Italy Hungary UK Greece

EU Directives Large Combustion Plant Directive (1988) Large Combustion Plant Directive II (2001) National Emissions Ceilings Directive (2001) 1988 directive exported German legislation, helped the SSP; 2001 – after Gothenburg protocol, but slightly stronger commitments

Acid Rain Cooperation in Europe Success or least common denominator agreements?

Emissions in the EC NOx-24%; SO2 -58%

Air Pollution in the US

Growth vs. Acidifying Emissions: Central and Eastern Europe

Growth and Acidifying Emissions: Commonwealth of Independent States

Conclusions -What facilitates cooperation? -Why some regimes ratchet up while other do not?