Analysis of Network Outage Reports Cybersecurity and Communications Reliability Division – Public Safety & Homeland Security Bureau John Healy February 2018

Data Source Database snapshot as of February 6, 2018 NORS Final Outage Reports through December 2017 were used in the analysis

Frequency Trend Analyses Estimate past trend and seasonality effects Estimates used in trend chart Based on 3-year window (4Q14 – 3Q17) Estimate most recent trend Comparison with past trend Based on 3-year window (1Q15 – 4Q17) Calculate 4Q17 average monthly frequency Test if significantly different from expected frequency based on past trend and seasonality effects

Frequency of Outages by Month Monthly Trend 0.9% (down from 1.1%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 1988.3 (significantly lower than expected)

Outage Index – For All Outages Except DS3-Simplex See ATIS-0100021 Analysis of FCC-Reportable Service Outage Data for a description of the method used to calculate the outage index.

(significantly lower than expected) Planned Maintenance Monthly Trend 5.2% (down from 5.4%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 383.0 (significantly lower than expected)

DS3 (Non-Simplex) Events Monthly Trend 0.9% (down from 1.1%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 1147.7 (significantly lower than expected)

Big DS3 Outages

Big DS3 Outages Monthly Trend 1.0% (down from 1.4%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 69.0

(significantly lower than expected) DS3-Simplex Monthly Trend 1.2% (down from 1.5%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 164 (significantly lower than expected)

Fiber Cut Monthly Trend flat 0% (unchanged) 4Q17 Monthly Average 213.3

E911 Monthly Trend flat 0.0% (down from 0.7%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 88.0

Very Large E911 Outages Monthly Trend flat 0% (unchanged) 4Q17 Monthly Average 1.7

(significantly lower than expected) E911 – Phase 2 Events Monthly Trend 2.0% (down from 2.8%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 21.3 (significantly lower than expected)

Wireline Monthly Trend flat 0% (unchanged 0%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 71.7 Wireline outages are all outages for which the Reason Reportable was at least 900,000 wireline user-minutes.

Wireless Monthly Trend 1.0% (unchanged) 4Q17 Monthly Average 215.0

VoIP Monthly Trend 5.5% (down from 6.0%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 280.7 (significantly lower than expected)

SS7 Monthly Trend -2.1% (unchanged) 4Q17 Monthly Average 13.0

Malicious Events Monthly Trend -3.0% (up from -3.5%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 9.3

Malicious Activity The figures for 2017 are through December.

(significantly lower than expected) Hardware Failure Monthly Trend 0.3% (down from 0.5%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 398.7 (significantly lower than expected)

Environmental – External Monthly Trend 0.5% (down from 0.7%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 232.7

Power Failure Monthly Trend flat 0% (down from 0.6%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 274.3

(significantly lower than expected) Diversity Failure Monthly Trend -0.6% (down from 0%) 4Q17 Monthly Average 50.0 (significantly lower than expected)

Duration Trends: DS3 Non-Simplex The duration of DS3 Non-Simplex outages has decreased from 2016 to 2017 (statistically significant using a Mann-Whitney test).

Duration Trends: E911 The duration of E911 outages is statistically unchanged in 2017 compared with 2016 (using a Mann-Whitney test). 7

Duration Trends: Wireline The duration of wireline outages is statistically unchanged in 2017 compared with 2016 (using a Mann-Whitney test).

Duration Trends: Wireless The duration of wireless outages is statistically unchanged in 2017 compared with 2016 (using a Mann-Whitney test).

Duration Trends: DS3 Simplex The duration of DS3 Simplex outages is statistically unchanged in 2017 compared with 2016 (using a Mann-Whitney test).

Duration Trends: VoIP The duration of VoIP outages has increased from 2016 to 2017 (statistically significant using a Mann-Whitney test).

Duration Trends: Other Special Facilities The duration of other special facilities outages is statistically unchanged from 2016 to 2017 (using a Mann-Whitney test).

Test for Trend in Event Duration Non-DS3-Simplex Outages Data from 1/2015 thru 12/2017 DS3-Simplex Events Only Data from 1/2015 thru 12/2017 Rank Correlation of duration with date is -.036 and is significant at the .0001 level Rank Correlation of duration with date is .062 and is significant at the .0001 level Conclusion: Durations of Non-DS3-Simplex Outages have shortened over the period from 1/2015 thru 12/2017. Conclusion: Durations of DS3-Simplex Events have lengthened over the period from 1/2015 thru 12/2017.

NORS Transition Monthly NORS Coordinators Meetings NORS User Manual FCC sent proposed changes to NORS manual to the NRSC for its feedback DS3 Simplex threshold change implemented in December 2017 Implemented going from DS3s to OC3s in January 2018