University of Warwick, UK Brexit Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that this work is joint with coauthors Federica Liberini, Eugenio Proto, and Michela Redoano.

What caused the Brexit decision?

Latest YouGov Data

Latest YouGov Data In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU? Feb 2018 August 2016 RIGHT 43% 44% WRONG 44% 44% DON’T KNOW 12% 11%

Hypothesis 1

Hypothesis 1 The old caused it.

Hypothesis 1 The old caused it.

Hypothesis 1 The old caused it.

Hypothesis 1 The old caused it.

"Why did millions vote to leave "Why did millions vote to leave? …the big gap between those over 50 and those below in support for Leave." Ben Chu, The Independent, 26 June 2016

Hypothesis 2

Hypothesis 2 Brits are anti-foreigner.

Hypothesis 2 Brits are anti-foreigner.

Hypothesis 2 Brits are anti-foreigner.

Hypothesis 3

Hypothesis 3 Brits felt financially hard-up, and lashed out at the EU.

Hypothesis 3 Brits felt financially hard-up, and lashed out at the EU.

"I don’t think Brexit would have happened if it hadn’t been for the political and economic events of the preceding 10 years. People…felt squeezed." Alistair Darling, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, The Guardian, 13 September 2017

"I don’t think Brexit would have happened if it hadn’t been for the political and economic events of the preceding 10 years. People…felt squeezed." Alistair Darling, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, The Guardian, 13 September 2017

We examine these ideas

We examine these ideas The source of data is Understanding Society 2016. A random sample of 8000 people in the run-up to June 23rd.

Probability of voting Brexit = f(age, income, gender, education, region, etc)

Question Wording ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’ Options 1 Remain a member of the European Union 2 Leave the European Union

We conclude that Brexit:

We conclude that Brexit: was not really about the old outvoting the young

We conclude that Brexit: was not really about the old outvoting the young was not really about people being anti-foreigner.

We find: Only the very young were hugely Remain.

The age effect on Leavers

Not predominantly about ‘foreigners’

Not predominantly about ‘foreigners’ Being ‘white British’ led to people voting about 6 percentage points more in favour of Leave.

Instead:

A key predictor turns out to be:

A key predictor turns out to be: Question wording: How well would you say you yourself are managing financially these days? Would you say you are...

A key predictor turns out to be: Living comfortably Doing alright Just about getting by Finding it quite difficult Finding it very difficult

A key predictor turns out to be: Living comfortably Doing alright Just about getting by Finding it quite difficult Finding it very difficult

A key predictor turns out to be: Living comfortably Doing alright Just about getting by Finding it quite difficult Finding it very difficult

A key predictor turns out to be: Living comfortably Doing alright Just about getting by Finding it quite difficult Finding it very difficult

A key predictor turns out to be: Living comfortably Doing alright Just about getting by Finding it quite difficult Finding it very difficult

A key predictor turns out to be: Living comfortably Doing alright Just about getting by Finding it quite difficult Finding it very difficult

Britain’s actual feelings in 2016

Britain’s actual feelings in 2016 Living comfortably (35.0% of people) Doing alright (39.7%) Just about getting by (19.0%) Finding it quite difficult (4.7%) Finding it very difficult (1.6%)

Real wages in the UK from 2005 to 2017

What our analysis finds is this:

Financial feelings were important in the Brexit decision

Interestingly, actual income was less so

Financial feelings were important in the Brexit decision

Some other patterns

Some other patterns Having a university degree: you were far more likely to vote Remain

Some other patterns Having a university degree: you were far more likely to vote Remain Being a woman: you were somewhat more likely to vote Remain

Some other patterns Having a university degree: you were far more likely to vote Remain Being a woman: you were somewhat more likely to vote Remain There were regional effects

Some other patterns Having a university degree: you were far more likely to vote Remain Being a woman: you were somewhat more likely to vote Remain There were regional effects Having children, or being unemployed, or being in a rural area: did not make much difference.

What about immigration views?

What about immigration views? We cannot study that directly, and it is perhaps too close to a version of the dependent variable.

In conclusion

In conclusion Financial ‘feelings’ University education or not

In conclusion Financial ‘feelings’ University education or not These seem to have been the largest influences.

University of Warwick, UK Brexit Andrew Oswald University of Warwick, UK I would like to acknowledge that this work is joint with coauthors Federica Liberini, Eugenio Proto, and Michela Redoano. The paper is downloadable from www.andrewoswald.com