IIASA Janusz Cofala, Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Emission Projections for 2020 Results from a study for the.

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Presentation transcript:

IIASA Janusz Cofala, Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Emission Projections for 2020 Results from a study for the European Environment Agency (Air Pollution Outlooks and Evaluation: Integrated Assessment Methodologies and Tools Applied to Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases. Report for the European Environment Agency, December 2000)

IIASA Assumptions for 2010 and 2020 Activity levels: Shared Analysis energy scenario of DG Energy for EU-15 and accession countries for 2010 and 2020 Emission controls: For 2010: Gothenburg Protocol For 2020: Measures implied by the emission ceilings of the Gothenburg Protocol applied to all new capital stock

IIASA SO 2 Emissions in Europe

IIASA NO x Emissions in Europe

IIASA VOC Emissions in Europe

IIASA NH 3 Emissions in Europe

IIASA Acidification Area of Unprotected Ecosystems

IIASA Eutrophication Area of Unprotected Ecosystems

IIASA Unprotected Ecosystems 2020 % of ecosystems area AcidificationEutrophication

IIASA Excess Ozone Exposure (Health) above WHO Guidelines

IIASA Excess Ozone Exposure (Vegetation) above Critical Levels

IIASA Ozone Exposure in 2020 ppm.hours AOT60Excess AOT40

IIASA Conclusions Emission ceilings of the Gothenburg Protocol in 2010 imply certain emission control measures/legislation The same measures/legislation, if applied to the capital stock renewed after 2010, will lead in many cases to even lower national emissions in 2020 These autonomous improvements will not be sufficient to reach the environmental long-term targets by 2020

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