Meltdown: Can the LibDems avoid disaster in 2015?

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Presentation transcript:

Meltdown: Can the LibDems avoid disaster in 2015? Andrew Russell University of Manchester www.britishelectionstudy.com

Reported Vote Intention (Wave 2) www.britishelectionstudy.com

Flow of the Vote? 2010 LD Voters   Feb-March 2014 May-June 2014 Conservative 8.9% 9.5% Labour 26.9% 26.7% Liberal Democrats 25.0% 21.6% Scottish National Party 1.2% 1.1% Plaid Cymru 0.3% UKIP 11.2% Greens 5.1% 8.4% BNP 0.4% 0.1% Would not vote 2.1% 1.8% Don’t Know 21.3% 19.1% N=6,436 Wave 1 and N=6,376 Wave 2 (all data are weighted using wt_full_w1 & wt_full_w2) www.britishelectionstudy.com

RVI of those contacted by LDs in last 4 weeks www.britishelectionstudy.com

Agency – 2010 LD Seats (Cons in 2nd) www.britishelectionstudy.com

Agency- 2010 LD Seats (Labour 2nd) www.britishelectionstudy.com