Volume 83, Issue 2, Pages 278-284 (February 2013) Circulating bone morphogenetic protein-7 and transforming growth factor-β1 are better predictors of renal end points in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus  Muh Geot Wong, Vlado Perkovic, Mark Woodward, John Chalmers, Qiang Li, Graham S. Hillis, Dania Yaghobian Azari, Min Jun, Neil Poulter, Pavel Hamet, Bryan Williams, Bruce Neal, Giuseppe Mancia, Mark Cooper, Carol A. Pollock  Kidney International  Volume 83, Issue 2, Pages 278-284 (February 2013) DOI: 10.1038/ki.2012.383 Copyright © 2013 International Society of Nephrology Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Association of kidney markers with major renal end points in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The lowest, middle, and highest third of total transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1) levels were 0–6237.5pg/ml, 6237.5–12,733.3pg/ml, and >12,733.3pg/ml, respectively. For bone morphogenetic protein-7 (BMP-7), the lowest, middle, and highest third were 0–7.95pg/ml, 7.95–19.33pg/ml, and >19.33pg/ml, respectively; for the total TGF-β1/BMP-7 ratio, the lowest, middle, and highest third were 0–228.5, 228.5–1016.3, and >1016.3, respectively. The results shown are odds ratio estimates from unadjusted models, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). *P<0.05, **P<0.01, ***P<0.0001. Kidney International 2013 83, 278-284DOI: (10.1038/ki.2012.383) Copyright © 2013 International Society of Nephrology Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 The comparison of AUCs (c-statistics) between established and novel kidney markers. AUCs are shown underneath the plot. The P-values comparing the AUC for total TGF-β1+BMP-7 and for all three novel kidney markers combined are <0.0001, when compared with UACR+eGFR. The P-value comparing all three novel kidney markers combined with total TGF-β1+BMP-7 is <0.0001. AUC, area under the curve; BMP-7, bone morphogenetic protein-7; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; TGF-β1, transforming growth factor-β1; UACR, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio. Kidney International 2013 83, 278-284DOI: (10.1038/ki.2012.383) Copyright © 2013 International Society of Nephrology Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Selection of cases and controls from the original ADVANCE (Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation) study. Cases were defined as individuals who developed a major renal end point during follow-up in the randomized trial: doubling of serum creatinine to at least 200μmol/l, need for renal replacement therapy, or death due to renal disease. Controls are those who did not develop a major renal end point, propensity score-matched for age, sex, race, baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), albuminuria status (normoalbuminuria, microalbuminuria, or macroalbuminuria) baseline blood pressure, baseline hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), known macrovascular disease (cerebrovascular accident, (CVA), myocardial infarct (MI), peripheral vascular disease), history of retinopathy, and randomized treatment allocation (active blood pressure treatment vs. placebo; intensive glucose lowering vs. standard care). Kidney International 2013 83, 278-284DOI: (10.1038/ki.2012.383) Copyright © 2013 International Society of Nephrology Terms and Conditions