Midterm Election Only 376 Days Away Dan Moll Moll Strategies, LLC & Associate Vice President Parcel Shippers Association

GOP holds majority 241 seats to 194 GOP has controlled the House 20 of the last 24 years Democrats need 24 seats to take the majority

GOP majority 52-48 Dems Need Net +3

All Politics is Local! Speaker Tip O’Neill 2018 Local or National?

Why Democrats Will Gain Seats Already hit rock bottom Largest GOP majority since 1928 was only 6 seats greater than the current roster of House Republicans Candidate recruitment is strong--historically low approval ratings for the President--apparent political weakness Why Democrats Will Gain Seats

Why Democrats Will Gain Seats Midterms referendum on the sitting President Historical Landslides in House In 1994 POTUS Bill Clinton -- GOP picked up 54 In 2010 POTUS Barack Obama – GOP picked up 63 Why Democrats Will Gain Seats

Why Republicans Might Hold On Voter Turnout in midterms – roughly 60% Prez Turnout especially problematic for the Democrats Alienated by President Trump, minorities and millennials least likely to show up Seniors -- solid GOP voting bloc cast a larger % Why Republicans Might Hold On

Why Republicans Might Hold On Democrats—defending 25 seats GOP—defending 8 Lopsidedness playing field makes 3-seat gain needed to take control seem daunting Of their 25 seats, 10 of them are in states that Trump won in the 2016 election Trump Territory -- North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, West Virginia and Indiana Why Republicans Might Hold On

Midterm Democrat Theme Mission pretty basic Keep pointing at Trump and asking voters in horrified tones: “Do you really want this guy running around unchecked?” Midterm Democrat Theme

Midterm Republican Theme Republicans (a little bit more nuanced) Washington is dysfunctional and we need to send more Republicans to DC to help President drain the swamp GOP needs a villain for the midterms Devil foes: Hilary Clinton & Barack Obama Midterm Republican Theme

GOP Candidates “Vote for Me to Stop Nancy Pelosi from Becoming Speaker” GOP Favorite Villain

Republican Legislative Victories?

Market Due for Correction Dow Jones Industrial Average Closed at New All Time High 66 Times since last election—up 4,600 points 25% Market Due for Correction

Kim Jung Un, Chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea & the supreme leader of North Korea Also Known As Rocket Man Crazy Foreign Foes

Special Counsel Investigation Former FBI Director Robert Mueller Special Counsel Investigation

2018 Midterm Election Dan Moll