Risked Probabilistic Assessment Results Alpha Prospect – Main Compartment - Risked 1.0 100 0.8 Gas Only 61 % COS Gas Cap & Oil Leg 0.6 51 % Chance of Finding More Than the Economic Minimum 0.4 Economic Minimum Oil Only 0.2 Slide 35 What we would show our management is a chart like this. It is an excedance plot like before, with one big difference The maximum on the Y-axis is not 1.0; instead it is 0.61 This is the COS that we showed on the previous slide That tells the boss that there is a 39% chance that the HC system is not working Also note the chance of having the economic minimum is a 50% - unrisked it was 75% The optimist would point out that there is about a 5% chance of finding 400 MOEB! Given the quality of this prospect and its chance to make a profit compared to the other opportunities our company has, a manager will decide whether or not to add Alpha to the “To Be Drilled” list. If Alpha is drilled and finds enough oil and gas to be economic, then we might work up the Beta prospect as a possible additional satellite development. 0.0 100 200 300 400 500 Million Oil Equivalent Barrels 72% Chance to find any hydrocarbons 58% Chance to find 100 MBOE 5% Chance to find 400 MBOE Courtesy of ExxonMobil L14 – Prospect Analysis