Contemporary World Politics

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Presentation transcript:

Contemporary World Politics 2016. 3. 7 Prof. Jaechun Kim

World News Briefings AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION If you want to become presidents in the US, you have to win two popular elections! Primary Elections (to Determine Candidacy for Each Party) Final Election (to Determine Presidency for the US) One of the distinct characteristics of the American national elections  candidates for most public offices are elected (mostly) by open primary elections! Both primaries and final elections take on the nature of “beauty contest” -- personal characters matter more that policy positions… (basically in every popular elections in the world…), but 2016 election has been extreme in this nature on Republican side For their party’s presidential candidate, people tend to support centrist candidates… Why? e.g., The fate of Howard Dean in 2004 Democratic primary…

Importance of winning early primaries (Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary) Why? Importance of carrying Super Tuesday where a number of states hold primaries together…

Who is winning the primary in each party? Magic Number – 1,237 to win nomination for GOP 2,383 to win DEM Delegate counts so far  http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html?_r=0 Establishment in GOP trying to derail Trump’s bid for candidacy http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/03/politics/mitt-romney-presidential-race-speech/

Recent debates for both parties… GOP CNN debate https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sOlf8kEWag (8:30 .. Feel the atmosphere…) insults are flying… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZf59zkXiEo http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/03/politics/donald-trump-small-hands-marco-rubio/index.html Fox debate https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yknVHpwtCF4 (43:00 .. On ISIS... 1:27 on FP…) DEM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRwLsNpI7OM (1:09 - … on FP)

DEBATE QUESTIONS How can we explain strong showings of outsiders in both parties primary elections? Who do you think would win the candidacy for both parties? Who do you think would win the presidency? How do you evaluate foreign policy positions of main candidates? Will there be any changes in international politics in 2017 if the new president comes into office? How? Any changes do you foresee in US policy toward Asia and to Middle East? Changes in security and trade policies?