Predicting the impact of climate change on cashew in Ghana and Côte d’ivoire

Questions on climate change impacts on cashew growing regions What is the magnitude of climatic changes in cashew growing areas in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire? Where are the future cashew, cocoa and cotton growing areas in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire? What are the strategic activities for adaptation to climate change?

Cashew growing areas in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire Data collected using GPS (yellow dots), land use data (orange dots) and data provided by partners during summit (green dots).

Future climate in cashew growing areas The rainfall decreases from 1168 mm to 1147 mm by 2050 passing through 1164 mm in 2030. The average decrease for 2030 is low (4 mm) for both countries; this is because in the central regions an average of -7 mm (-19 maximum) decrease and in northern regions an of increase of 4 mm (12 maximum) is predicted (see Figure 3). • Temperatures increase and the average increase is 2.3 ºC passing through 1,3 ºC in 2030 • The mean daily temperature range decrease from 11.2 ºC to 10,6 ºC in 2050 • The maximum number of cumulative dry months keeps constant in 5 months

Current suitability of cashew production According to MAXENT, the current cashew growing areas in Ghana are located in the Guinea and Sudan savannah eco-zones, mainly in the following regions: Northern and Brong Ahafo region in Ghana and Zanzan, Valle du Bandama, Savanes, Worodougou and Denguele regions in Côte d'Ivoire .

Suitability of cashew production by 2030 By 2030 suitable areas start shifting and the districts most affected by a slight decrease of suitability in Ghana are Sawla-Tuna-Kalba, Bole, Tain, Wenchi, Jaman Nort and Jaman. The decrease in suitability in Côte d'Ivoire is large and the most affected districts are Boundiali, Korhogo and Odiene (Figure 8). 15 According to the predictions, the remaining areas will be less suitable but still good enough to grow cashew, only Kitampo Norh, Pru and Central Gonja districts in Ghana and Bondoukou-Sandegue district in Côte d'Ivoire will have similar conditions than current climate. Regions such as N´zicomoe, Greater Accra, Volta (south side) and Northern in general will experience an increase in suitable areas.

Suitability of cashew production by 2050 By 2050, most of the cashew-growing areas will be affected positively under predicted climate conditions and gain considerably suitable area, this is mainly in the Northern, Brong Ahafo and Upper East Regions in Ghana.

Suitability change for cashew growing regions by 2030

Suitability change for cashew growing regions by 2050

Current suitability for cashew , cotton and cocoa

Suitability for cashew , cotton and cocoa by 2030 According to Maxent cocoa growing-areas lose considerable suitability in Lagunes, Agneby, Moyen-comoe and Sud-comoe regions in Côte d'Ivoire by 2030. The climate conditions become more favorable for cashew in the savannas areas. For cotton growing-areas in both countries a small reduction of the suitable areas is predicted, there is no change in location compared with current conditions, still located in the north regions in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire.

Suitability for cashew , cotton and cocoa by 2050 Cocoa continues to lose suitable area by 2050 as the temperature increases and precipitation patterns change. Cashew is affected positively under future predicted climate conditions and gains suitable area considerably. Cotton loses suitability, but the projected conditions to 2050 still considered as good to grow cotton.

For Research and future projects Recommendations For Farmers Implement GAP and use improved planting material Prevent bush fire, as current growing areas become drier Farm diversification with alternative crops (citrus, yam, maize and millet)to avoid monoculture and protect natural resources and ensure food security. For Research and future projects Evaluate the implications of progressive changes on RCN quality and quantity and on social parameters (income, poverty, equity). Research new practices and germplasm Identify alternative crops suitable Participate in the development of national climate change adaptation policies Conduct further research on climate change impact on crops including the cost and benefit of specific technological and genetic adaptation strategies

Recommandations For the Government For the Industry Develop adaptation strategy including cost and benefit analysis for agricultural sector for the coming decades. Promote the research on postharvest management and other added value options for cashew. Implement the awareness of CC, by promoting and publishing research results on CC through public information campaign Support R&D on appropriate technologies for adaptation For the Industry Support government, research and farmers to adapt to progressive climate change. Implement quality control system for processing cashew´s nuts Promote and implement training and educational campaign on quality for cashew.