Stakeholder consultation on the CAFE baseline agricultural scenario

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Presentation transcript:

Stakeholder consultation on the CAFE baseline agricultural scenario France Perspectives Stakeholder consultation on the CAFE baseline agricultural scenario

Model's Description MAGALI : Economic model simulate in the medium term the repercussions of the decisions of agricultural policy (PAC ver. 2000,…) on the offer of agricultural produce, the formation of the added value… establish economic relations quantified between the essential indicators of agriculture. Outputs: Dairy cows : Number of animals Other animals : production level Cultures : surfaces 08 October 2003 France perspectives

Comparison with Baseline - 2010 Results stemming from MAGALI and additional hypothesis Inaccuracy of Magali's estimation for poultry 08 October 2003 France perspectives

Comparison with Baseline - 2020 Results stemming trend scenario from 2000-2010 08 October 2003 France perspectives

Comparison with Baseline 08 October 2003 France perspectives

To be noted Since last year piglets between 20 and 50kg are included in French emission inventories  increase of swine number of 2.8M in 2001, to be taken into account in projection… Statistical revision of number of animals for 1989 to 2001  a revision for projections may be necessary for certain –minor- livestocks : horses, or mules. 08 October 2003 France perspectives

National agricultural Policies Concerning NH3 emissions, decisions to take into account for CAFE : Measures from annex IX of Gothenburg protocol (limit use of urea, application of BAT in poultry farming,…) "Nitrates" Directive  measures to curb use of mineral fertilizers PMPOA (program of control of pollution from agriculture) : development of cover of liquid manure pits storage, encouragement of environmental agricultural good practices (injections, …), etc. CAP + ver. 2003 Taxe on fertilizers and on animal food (in study) High occurrence of aerobic treatment of pig manure 08 October 2003 France perspectives

Conclusion French values needs to be revised : Take into account more accurate data Introduce effects of recent policies 08 October 2003 France perspectives