The Maryland-National Capital Park & Planning Commission September 13, 2003 Adequacy of transportation facilities Economic vitality Managing growth in Montgomery County

The Transportation Tests Policy Area Transportation Review. Area average roadway congestion cannot exceed standard. Local Area Transportation Review. Tests congestion at nearby intersections. For both PATR and LATR, congestion standard varies depending on transit availability & usage.

Policy Area Transportation Review Staging Ceilings: Calculation of the maximum number of jobs and housing units the transportation system can handle. Rural: no staging ceilings because growth limited by zoning. Staging ceilings in one policy area cannot result in excessive congestion in another policy area APF finding: 5-12 years. Policy Areas

How much new development can be approved? TransportationDevelopment Capacity of Programmed Facilities Capacity of Existing Facilities STAGING CEILING Approved Development Existing Development Net Remaining Capacity Policy Areas

What is TTLOS? Component of PATR: Total Transportation Level of Service Formula for determining how much auto congestion should be permitted in each policy area. Inputs are transit mode share and transit accessibility. Problems with concept surfaced during 2001 update; a major reason for AGP review.

Development permitted under current ceilings JobsHousing Already Approved77,29225,987 Capacity New Approvals32,05231,568 Approvals (2002)10,5395,169 Completions (2002):7,2943,456 This chart does not include development activity in Rockville or Gaithersburg

Policy areas in moratorium FY03 Housing In Moratorium Not in Moratorium Municipalities Jobs

Approving development in transportation moratorium areas Small Scale Development Affordable Housing Staging Ceiling Flexibility Developer Participation Development Districts Metro Station Areas Economic Development Projects

Local Area Transportation Review Objective: make sure development does not overwhelm nearby intersections. Applied to all projects generating 50 or more peak hour trips. If intersection fails the standard, developer can make improvements, mitigate trips, or – in limited cases – make a payment to the County.

Traffic congestion has gotten worse JobsPopVMTRoads Percent change,

Comparing traffic congestion measures Urbanized Congestion 2000 DC Region Montgomery Co.Fairfax Co. Montgomery Co.Fairfax Co. Transit Mode Share 2000 Square Kilometers of Development Montgomery County Fairfax County

Roadway congestion Congested Severely congested Approaching congested

Cost of future infrastructure 2030 Forecast: 146,000 jobs and 78,000 housing units (31,200 students). Transportation: $5.9 billion About $26,000 per forecast job and housing unit

Transportation test concerns Using the right measures? Staging ceilings are based on average congestion. AGP looks only at peak periods. Complex: Reliance on a complicated transportation model. Good: technical and objective. Bad: only an expert can challenge findings.

Transportation test goals More transparent and understandable Fewer subareas Strengthen connection to capital programming Retain LATR

Economic vitality

Economic vitality context The foundations of Montgomery Countys economy are very strong. Direct federal government activity Attracts and supports highly educated workforce Attracts and supports tech-oriented private sector Many counties would envy Montgomery Countys job growth, labor force, and unemployment rate.

County economy: 2003 Local economy exhibits strengths in face of national downturn Job growth: flat overall, tech sectors among hardest hit Federal impact: procurement, leasing & employment outlook still strong Office space market: short, mild recession appears to be ending

Annual job growth: 2,159 jobs Between the second quarters of 2001 and 2002, Montgomery County added 2,159 jobs, growing 0.5 percent. Second quarter figures (change from previous year) Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data

Job growth: tech jobs drop to 1997 levels There are 71,400 high tech jobs in Montgomery County. United States Maryland Montgomery Co. Index: 1988Q1=100 Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2002Q2)

Jobless rate is 2.6% There are 13,630 unemployed persons in Montgomery County. Jan 1988: 2.6% June 1992: 3.9% July 2003: 2.6% Source: MD DLLR

Federal jobs expected to exceed 1994 levels by 2005 Workers By 2015, jobs at installations are expected to grow by 38 percent above current levels. Jobs in leased space are expected to fluctuate between 22,300 and 25,500. Source: M-NCPPC analysis of US government data

Federal leasing reaches 6.7 million s.f. Source: General Services Administration (GSA) Square feet Since 1994, GSA has leased between 6.0 and 6.7 million square feet of commercial space in Montgomery County

Federal procurement reaches record levels: $4.7 billion Source: General Services Administration (GSA) $ billions The regional leaders in federal procurement are Washington DC and Fairfax County, VA, both with more than double Montgomery Countys amount.

Office market: long term trends show construction cycles Millions of square feet

Office market: Class A vacancy rates have started to decline C B A All Office vacancy rates

Montgomery fared better than Fairfax and region In March 2003: percent better or worse than March 2002 Vacant space Occupied space Montgomery Countys office market fared better than the rest of region during the recent recession, as we had less vacant space and we had positive net absorption of new space.

Office market recovery negative indicators Leasing of new buildings may leave sublet space vacant. U.S. economy is in the doldrums, undermining confidence. There are still 800,000 sq. ft. under construction.

Summary Transportation tests: Have moderated the pace of growth and have required road improvements to be built. But the current methods may be more complicated than necessary. Congestion: Roads are congested and the cost of new facilities is high. Economic vitality: Countys economic foundations and prospects are strong. Office market is healthier than region as a whole, but has space for companies to expand.