JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels Frank Raes Climate Change Unit Institute for Environment and Sustainability Joint Research Centre European Commission 28 June 2005, Brussels on the link between global (climate) change research and policy making

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels charles david keeling UNFCCCKyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol into force

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels socio economic drivers fossil fuel use emissions < - 8% cheapest controls ? yes no GHG emissions cost effective climate change policy energy demand & supply cost c definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico PROTOCOLLO DI KYOTO

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels economy and climate change some numbers economic damage of floods in 2002: ~17 billion (EEA) crop loss and forest fires in 2003: ~ 13 billion (UNEP) heat related casualties in 2003: ~ (UNEP) (35 billion …) cost of implementing Kyoto Protocol in EU25: ~ 1 to 3.5 billion /yr cost for security measures at 2004 Olympic Games: ~ 1 billion money spent by Italians in Lotterie, etc in 2004: 23 billion net profit made by BP in 2004: 12 billion Tsunami solidarity funds promised by world: billion World can cope with (= adapt to) present effects of climate change! BUT: are there limits to adaptation to future climate change? Implementing the Kyoto Protocol (= start mitigation) is feasible! BUT: how much mitigation is needed to stabilize climate at safe levels ?

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels socio economic drivers fossil fuel use emissions < - 8% cheapest controls ? yes no GHG emissions cost effective climate change policy energy demand & supply cost c definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico PROTOCOLLO DI KYOTO

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels socio economic drivers fossil fuel use yes no GHG emissions cost effective climate change policy energy demand & supply cost c definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico post KYOTO avoid dangerous climate change ? yes no

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels socio economic drivers fossil fuel use yes no GHG emissions cost effective climate change policy energy demand & supply cost c definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico post KYOTO EU 2 C target yes no

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels IPCC TAR

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels stabilization at 450 CO 2 equivalent ~50 % probability to achieve 2 ºC Malte Meinshausen, ETH, Zurich CO 2 Emissions (GtC) A2 B1 CO 2 emission reductions needed to achieve EU 2 ºC objective 200 GtC current technologies that reduce each 25 GtC over next 50 yrs -efficient cars -reduced car use -efficient buildings -coal to methane switch -coal + CO2 capture and storage -nuclear energy -wind energy -photo-voltaic -bio-fuels -reduced deforestation, reforestation -conservation tillage Pacala & Socolow, Science 305, 2004

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels socio economic drivers fossil fuel use levels & effects of conventional Air Pollution effects < thresholds ? cheapest controls ? yes no end-of-pipe control technology emissions < - 8% cheapest controls ? yes no GHG emissions integrated cost effective policy energy demand & supply cost c cost saving definizione di una politica integrata

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels socio economic drivers fossil fuel use levels & effects of conventional Air Pollution effects < thresholds ? cheapest controls ? yes no end-of-pipe control technology avoid dangereous climate change ? yes no GHG emissions integrated cost effective policy energy demand & supply cost c cost saving definizione di una politica integrata

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels fossil fuel use levels & effects of conventional Air Pollution effects < thresholds ? cheapest controls ? yes no end-of-pipe control technology cost effective air pollution policy definizione di una politica per combattere linquinamento atmosferico e.g.: National Emission Ceilings Directive cost A

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels socio economic drivers fossil fuel use levels & effects of conventional Air Pollution effects < thresholds ? cheapest controls ? yes no end-of-pipe control technology emissions < - 8% cheapest controls ? yes no GHG emissions integrated cost effective policy energy demand & supply cost c cost saving definizione di una politica integrata

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels local scalesregional scalesglobal scales top-down bottom up fundamental research applied research research policy making EUROTRAC IGACEC DG RTD projects EC DG ENV CLTRAP FCCC EC DG RTD projects EUROTRAC IGAC EUROTRAC IGAC EUROTRACWGEs EMEP COMPARTIMENTALIZATION IN ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY RESEARCH Anno 2001

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY RESEARCH Anno 2005 the overall goals of ACCENT are: to promote a common European strategy for integrated research local to global scales atmospheric change / economic drivers to develop durable means of communication and collaboration between a broad research community to optimize the interactions with policy-makers and the public

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels scientific integration integrated assessment policy making politics public awareness scientific research Linking Science and Policy

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels scientific research scientific integration integrated assessment policy making politics public awareness Linking Science and Policy

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels scientific research scientific integration integrated assessment policy making politics public awareness Marrakech Kyoto Climate Change Science and Policy FCCC ozone hole US heat wave CO 2 record Mauna Loa acid rain IGBP IPCC SBSTA COP IPCC

JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels THE AMSTERDAM DECLARATION GLOBAL CHANGE priority The busines-as-usual way of dealing with the Earth is unsustainable and has to be replaced by deliberate strategies of good management A new system of global environmental science is required which must integrate across disciplines, environment and development issues, and the natural and social sciences July 2001 WCRP IGBP IHDP DIVERSITAS = INTERACTION between SCIENCE and POLICY ! = POLICY !