SHENZHEN MIDDLE SCHOOL 2 Guessing coincidence SHENZHEN MIDDLE SCHOOL 2

Statement of problem We would like to study how people’s guesses on a parameter are related to the real value of the parameter.

How we deal with this problem…

The parameter we’ve chosen… A) Direct parameter easy to visualize 1. height of the box of a drink B) Indirect parameter people familiar with 2. number of pages of an exercise book 3. number of pages of a dictionary C) Parameter people unfamiliar with 4. total mileage of China’s highways

Conditions to be considered 1. people’s different familiarity with the object 2. different ways people observe the object

Ways of collecting data 1. Interviewing people around us (in school/ parents) 2. Internet open platforms

Number of samples After waiting for around a week, we got around 110 sets of useful information.

data collection (height of box)

The exact length of the parameter That means the average of the guesses was within about 0.4062734% of the true measured value.

What I got from these things… During the experiment I divided all the observers into three groups. The first one is that they drink the soymilk for less than three times a month. The second type is that they drink the soymilk for less than four times a week, and the last type is that they drink the drink every day. And every type have subdivided.

Data collection (book pages) The chart shows the result of 3 different books. Average of values received 174.7777778 640.125 593.875 Actual value 146 640 512 Deviation 19.178% 0.01953% 15.82%

Data collection (book pages) Actual value Actual value X-axis : value of parameter Y-axis : frequency

Data collection (highway mileage) The received values have an obvious summit on the image. But the summit does not match the real value. Actual value: 120000km

Conclusion When guessing about familiar parameters, with a large number of samples, the average value will be very close to the actual value. The experimented values distribute around the actual value, with a summit near the actual value. However, no patterns are recovered when people are asked to guess about completely unfamiliar parameters.