Low risk of a sexually-transmitted Zika virus outbreak

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Presentation transcript:

Low risk of a sexually-transmitted Zika virus outbreak Laith Yakob, Adam Kucharski, Stephane Hue, W John Edmunds The Lancet Infectious Diseases Volume 16, Issue 10, Pages 1100-1102 (October 2016) DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30324-3 Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd Terms and Conditions

Figure The trade-off in Zika virus transmission probability per sexual partnership (β) and the duration of infectiousness (1/γ) needed to exceed the outbreak threshold (R0 > 1) Both axes are log scale. Other parameters in the model are the mean number and the variance of sexual partners, with a recent survey in the UK producing the respective values of 14·1 and 4844·16 over participants' lifetimes.12 For comparison, the dashed line shows the approximate per sexual partnership transmission probability for HIV and the consequent duration of infectiousness necessary for an outbreak. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2016 16, 1100-1102DOI: (10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30324-3) Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd Terms and Conditions