Crude Oil Outlook Oil Demand Growth Oil Supply Growth Stocks

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Presentation transcript:

Crude Oil Outlook Oil Demand Growth Oil Supply Growth Stocks China / OECD / EM Growth Weather – Northern winter, El Nino / La Nina Regulations –RFS, ECA etc Demand substitution – LNG, EV, renewables etc Refining capacity growth Indian demand growth Oil Supply Growth US growth, new pipelines Other non-OPEC growth / Bio-fuels OPEC spare capacity Outages / Geo-political Risks Iran, Iraq, Libya, WAF South Sudan, Yemen, Syria Venezuela Upstream Capital Investment E& D costs and floor for marginal barrels Stocks Crude stocks in OECD countries Finished product stocks Floating stocks Other Drivers China – US Trade war Economic Slowdown Non-commercial or speculative positions Central Bank’s monetary policies Long term oil price expectations Producer hedging activity Contango / backwardation structure in curve USD strength SPR programs

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