– Cash Flow Forecasting – Republic of Croatia Ministry of Finance PEMPAL TCOP Cash Management Thematic Group Meeting – Cash Flow Forecasting – Vienna, Austria November 7-9, 2018

ORGANISATION Department for State Budget Financial Flow Planning MINISTRY OF FINANCE STATE SECRETARY GENERAL SECRETARIAT Human Resources, Legal Affairs and Information Sector Public Procurement , General and Technical Affairs Sector Sector for the construction and maintenance of border crossings Finance and Accounting Sector IT Sector CABINET OF THE MINISTER STATE TREASURY DIRECTORATE FOR MACROECONOMIC ANALYSES EU AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL RELATIONS Institute for Macroeconomic and Fiscal Analyses and Forecasts EU and International Financial Relations Sector DIRECTORATE FOR THE ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL SYSTEM Sector for Concessions and State Grants Sector for SOE Business Analyses Sector for the Financial System DIRECTORATE FOR FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, INTERNAL AUDIT AND SUPERVISION Financial Inspectorate Sector for Financial and Budget Supervision Service for Internal Audit and Internal Supervision Fraud and Deviations Service CUSTOMS TAX ADMINISTRATION Sector for the preparation and drafting of the State Budget Proposal State Budget Execution Sector State Accounting and Non-Profit Organisation Accounting Sector Sector for National Fund Operations Internal Control Harmonisation Sector for Financing Local and Regional Self-Government Units Service for Normative and Legal Affairs Legal Affairs DIRECTORATE FOR PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT Debt and Risk Management Sector for the compensation of seized property Sector for legal and IT support OFFICE FOR THE PREVENTION OF MONEY LAUNDERING INDEPENDENT SECTOR FOR SECOND-INSTANCE ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURE INDEPENDENT SECTOR FOR ISSUING WORK PERMITS AND SUPERVISION OF CERTIFIED AUDITORS AND AUDITING FIRMS Department for State Budget Financial Flow Planning Develops forecasts of state budget cash flows and forecasts of the structure and amount of budget expenses, which include information on the planned expenditures, principal and interest payments, and the issued guaranties Analyses the budget categories required for state budget liquidity forecasting Monitors and records the monthly, weekly and daily liquidity plan execution Develops daily simulations of monthly financial flows relative to the paid expenses and expenditures, and realized income and receipts Department for State Budget Financial Flow Management Suggests the possible schemes for shortfall financing and possible investments of temporary cash surpluses from the state budget account with short-term bank deposits in domestic and foreign currency Monitors balance movements in the state budget account, in domestic and foreign currency

CADRES AND DATA SOURCES EXPENSES INCOME TSA FINANCIAL AGENCY (FINA) CROATIAN NATIONAL BANK SPENDING UNITS SECTOR FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS DEPARTMENT FOR STATE BUDGET FINANCIAL FLOW PLANNING FMIS INSTITUTE FOR MACROECONOMIC ANALYSES AND PLANNING TAX ADMINISTRATION NATIONAL FUND SECTOR PUBLIC DEBT ADMINISTRATION FORECASTS AND EXECUTION IN THE PREVIOUS PERIOD

TIMEFRAME AND SCOPE – Monthly liquidity forecast

MONTHLY BALANCE FLUCTUATIONS INCOME EXPENSES BALANCE

BASIC TOOLS – EXCELL WORKSHEETS – MANY

TOOLS AND SOFTWARE FOR FORECASTING FMIS INTERNET CROATIAN NATIONAL BANK FINANCIAL AGENCY (FINA) SUPPLIER REQUEST FOREIGN PAYMENTS SINGLE ACCOUNT REGISTRY PAYMENTS IN HRK CENTRAL STATE TREASURY SYSTEM SAP WEB APPLICATIONS MASTER DATA MANAGEMENT BW-BUSINESS WAREHOUSE BUDGET EXPLANATIONS INCIDENT AND CHANGE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM BUDGET CLASSIFICATIONS GATEWAY R/3 TRANSACTION SYSTEM FISCAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT BUDGET USERS FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM INTERNET BROWSER SAP REGIONAL TREASURY

ACCURACY AND PRECISION – INCOME AND RECEIPTS FORECASTS, EXPENDITURE AND EXPENSES FORECASTS – 2018 SEMIANNUAL BUDGET EXECUTION EXPENDITURE plan EXPENDITURE execution Jan.18 Feb.18 Mar.18 Apr.18 May.18 Jun.18 Jan.18 Feb.18 Mar.18 Apr.18 May.18 Jun.18 EXPENSES plan EXPENSES execution RECEIPTS plan RECEIPTS execution Jan.18 Feb.18 Mar.18 Apr.18 May.18 Jun.18 Jan.18 Feb.18 Mar.18 Apr.18 May.18 Jun.18

FORECAST INFORMATION USERS DEPARTMENT FOR STATE BUDGET FINANCIAL FLOW PLANNING TREASURY ADMINISTRATION DIRECTORATE FOR PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT DIRECTORATE FOR MACROECONOMIC ANALYSES LIQUIDITY COMMITTEE INTERESTED PUBLIC

INFORMATION ON THE SIGNIFICANT BUDGET EXPENSES PAYMENT PLAN

CHALLENGES AND ISSUES AMENDMENTS TO THE DECISION ON FINANCING EXTENSION OF MATURITY “URGENT” PAYMENTS STATE GUARANTEE COMMITTMENTS, ON ACTIVATION SPENDING PLANNED FUNDS AT THE END OF THE YEAR INABILITY TO PLAN THE INFLOW OF EU FUNDS WITH MORE PRECISION MATURITY MISMATCH BETWEEN FOREIGN CURRENCY ASSETS AND LIABILITIES

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