MIFIRA Framework: Lecture 13 Putting together the pieces Chris Barrett and Erin Lentz March 2012

Putting together the pieces Before diving into the analytics consider: Needs assessment Context Households and Individuals Marketshed Seasonal Calendars Market-mapping Policies

Putting together the pieces What are the pieces? Recipients / Consumers Access Preferences Demand Suppliers & Source Markets Identifying markets Supply responsiveness Competition Equilibrium effects Integrate supply responsiveness and demand

Access 1a. Are food insecure households well connected to local markets? Basic info: which markets, for what products, when? What constrains access? Inter-community constraints Distance, safety, costs, seasons Intra-community constraints Socio-cultural reasons (gender, caste, marital status, etc.), safety, OVCs, HIV+ households When are access constraints insurmountable? Can be stand alone assessment

Demand Response 1b. How will local demand respond to transfers? By how much will demand shift? The form of the transfer matters The amount of the transfer matters The targeting of the transfer plays a major role The demand effects of transfers are typically greatest among poorer households and in lean seasons.

Preferences 1e. Do food insecure households have a preference over the form/mix of aid they receive? Eliciting preferences can identify not only preferred transfer but also issues and concerns of households or individuals When eliciting preferences, need to provide information on how transfers would most likely be delivered Will delivery location and timing for different transfers differ? Will cash transfers be inflation indexed? Preferences drive elasticities

Methods of understanding access and preferences Information sources: Expenditure data Rapid Appraisal Key Informants Household survey Focus group discussions by gender by target population Inter-community differences Marketshed mapping

Supply Side 1c. How much additional food can traders supply at or near current costs? & 2b. Will agency purchases drive up food prices excessively in source markets? Trader capacity to respond to demand increases Price analysis: market integration and IPPs Availability and trade Barriers to trade expansion (including policies) Supply chains and market maps Supply responsiveness Linking supply and marginal costs Can be stand alone assessment

Supply side 1d. Do local food traders behave competitively? Marketing margins Counts, CR4, HHI Structure, conduct, performance 2a. Where are viable prospective source markets? & 2c. Will local or regional purchases affect producer prices differently than transoceanic shipments? Market integration and IPPs Formal and informal policies Availability Program comparisons

Triangulating Findings MIFIRA analytics may conflict, due to: Different types of data Different underlying assumptions Different geographic scope The less precise the MIFIRA analysis, the more important monitoring becomes

Monitoring: three areas Early warning indicators: Has the food security situation changed? Monitoring market conditions: How are markets functioning (e.g., are prices rising? are prices volatile?, has competition changed?)? Monitoring impact of the intervention: Is the intended population being reached? Is the program having the intended effects? Are there any adverse effects? For a given program, is the form of transfer still appropriate?

Role of Monitoring in Information Gathering, Planning and Analysis, and Program Implementation Cycle Source: Barrett (2009) MIFIRA

Monitoring We focus on monitoring market conditions and program effects Tailor monitoring The less precise an aspect of the analysis is, the more important careful monitoring of that aspect becomes When feasible, assess duration and direction of change Expectations, trends Assess program size relative to the local economy

Monitoring Prices When will ongoing monitoring of prices indicate a need for further investigation? Prices rise or are more volatile Are prices increasing more than 10% (or more than the amount estimated using supply responsiveness)? Are prices outstripping inflation? Abnormalities compared to expectations Are prices deviating from historical trends? Data falls outside of estimated confidence bands Are prices increasing more than estimated?

Monitoring Recipient Impacts Households can provide information on: Ease of access Food availability in local markets Changes in terms of trade and prices Severity of food insecurity Perceived quality of food

Monitoring Local and Regional Procurement Assess prices of food in target delivery markets Increases in price volatility can harm local producers And, assess prices in source markets Identify possible harm to consumers at the source market Increased volatility around / following LRP

Minimum Monitoring Schedule Prices and terms of trade: semi-monthly or monthly Household access and preference: periodically Important events: as they arise Be precise about data needs

Triggers When should response analysis be re-visited? Sources of triggers: Shocks, important events or other changes Findings from on-going monitoring Abnormalities or departures from the context under which the analysis was completed If re-evaluating the response analysis is warranted, focus on aspects that have changed

Triggers Shocks: Abnormalities: On-going monitoring: Policy changes affecting staple foods, livelihoods, or food trade Market access of traders/ households (conflict, infrastructural damage) Abnormalities: Changes in supply chains, competition On-going monitoring: Price spikes or unusual volatility Changes in terms of trade for food insecure or near- insecure households (including inflation)