Tilted Ice: How certain National Hockey League teams are ^See Appendix 1, Model 3 *p-value < 0.05 Suspected Teams: Anaheim, Chicago, Colorado, Florida, Nashville, and NY Islanders Tilted Ice: How certain National Hockey League teams are manipulating the league’s point system Michael J. Lopez/ Department of Biostatistics, Brown University/ statsbylopez.wordpress.com What was the effect of the NHL implementing a loser point in 2004? It encouraged nonconference overtime games Old Points System (pre-2004) New Points System (post-2004) log-odds of Overtime (with 95% CI’s), nonconference vs. conference games 2) How is hockey impacted? Scoring in tied games drops vs. nonconference teams Odds of any future goal (95% interval) given game tied with (20, 10, 5) minutes remaining Type (vs. conference games) 20 minutes left 10 minutes left 5 minutes left Nonconference games, all other teams 0.94 (0.62-1.43) 0.66 (0.43-1.02) 1.51 (0.82-2.78) Nonconference games, Suspected Teams* 2.00 (1.23-3.22)** 2.33 (1.39-3.84)** 2.04 (1.12-3.84)** *Anaheim, Chicago, Columbus, Florida, Nashville, NY Islanders **p-value < 0.05 3) And what of the 2013 realignment? A new kind of overtime game!!! 2013 rule change: Teams judged on divisional standings 30% more non-divisional conference games to OT, comparing 2013-14 season to past