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How best to prepare for the future The point is not so much to predict “the” future… but to prepare for various contingencies Based on the logical extension of established trends
Gartner Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends 2019 (6’)
Ergo: How best to think about the future? Think of the drivers of change Use the drivers to imagine different scenarios of the future Imagine perhaps three; each should be plausible but different Extrapolate back from those future scenarios to think about what to do now to prepare
What “Drivers” Have We Observed?
Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence TechnoSphere Drivers Intelligent Tech Convergent Media Information technology will transform our day-to-day lives. "The big trends - - availability of cheap sensors - cheap computing power & ubiquitous connectivity - by 2020 everything large enough to carry a microchip probably will, & from there the possibilities are endless- Ubiquitous- Imbedded Intelligence 2004 http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html
2nite’s Line-up: Who-saw-what coming-when… “Its” defining dimensions…& implications…. “Its” Ramifications: New Rules & Roles re: Organization Structure & Management New Business Models Need for New Mind & Skill Sets…
Open Class Sujet du Jour What the hell is it about these guys… that qualifies them as world renowned prognosticators Open Class Sujet du Jour Section (I) To Date Sept.12 - Meet the Futurists... ... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard a16z (ie 10 Year Futures vs. What's Happening Now) Singularity University + Andrew McAfee
What will future jobs look like? (14’)| Andrew McAfee
Better experts = foxes: thinkers who know many small things, The least accurate = hedgehogs: “thinkers who ‘know one big thing,’ aggressively extend the explanatory reach … into new domains” Beginning in the 1980s examined 27,451 forecasts by 284 academics, pundits and other prognosticators ---- the conclusion - the experts bombed. …worse than statistical models, & could barely eke out a tie w/ dart-throwing chimps. Better experts = foxes: thinkers who know many small things,
... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard Daniel Bell
... Daniel Bell, , Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard Alvin Toffler
Ray Kurzweil PREDICTIONS ... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard PREDICTIONS Ray Kurzweil
... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard The Future Is Faster Than You Think | Global Summit 2018 | Singularity University 22’/@~12’
Kevin Kelly ….. tells technology's epic story ... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard Kevin Kelly ….. tells technology's epic story 12 Inevitable Tech Forces That Will Shape Our Future & THE FUTURE OF INTELLIGENCE
Kevin Kelly: How AI can bring on a second Industrial Revolution (13’)
... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly (@18’) Gerd Leonhard
... Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Diamandis, Kevin Kelly, Tim O'Reilly & Gerd Leonhard
The best way to predict the future is to invent it– Alan Kay--‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface
Future Predictions 4’