Using Food Balance Sheets and Supply Utilization Accounts in the analysis of agricultural development and food security Piero Conforti ESA.

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Presentation transcript:

Using Food Balance Sheets and Supply Utilization Accounts in the analysis of agricultural development and food security Piero Conforti ESA

ESA users State of Food Insecurity in the World Agriculture Towards 20XX State of Food and Agriculture many others, for specific analyses

high expectations hardly any comparable independent data source detailed balanced items large coverage (countries, products) time consistency agriculture and food security user-friendly access (new website)

observable data issues inconsistencies (e.g. negative consumption) implausible feed i-o ratios implausible year-to-year changes (in consumption, production, stocks) large divergences from other data sources

observable data issues

observable data issues

observable data issues

observable data issues

observable data issues

observable data issues India’s poultry production in 2007 FBS: 664 th tons ProdStat livestock: 2313 th tons OECD-FAO projections: 2315 th tons Egypt undernourishment figures: consistency with the incidence of poverty

observable data issues

observable data issues

observable data issues could these be addressed with more: consistency/plausibility checks cross-checks with existing survey data cross-checks with other data sources an informal in-house consultation mechanism to decide on conflicting information

non-observable data issues outdated or homogeneous conversion factors/extraction rates (processed products, calories, waste) waste (farmgate-retail; hh level details) data resulting from estimations and ad hoc computations

non-observable data issues could these be addressed with more: periodic updates of coefficients/conversion factors/extraction rates, through ad hoc studies; or regular checks with other technical Divisions standardized estimation/interpolation procedures and criteria cross-checks with existing survey data cross-checks with other data sources

other issues some totals and aggregated items missing number of products: please do not reduce! timeliness: back to the old two-year cycle? focal points: could they manage a two-way information flow? internal pre-releases to check data?

to conclude FBS/SUA are a unique and valuable resource it seems possible to address the issues highlighted Ideas to consider: more cross-checks more exchanges with the rest of the house