National Efficiencies in Publishing Scientific Papers R. D. Shelton and P. Foland WTEC, Baltimore, MD, USA Sponsored by NSF Grant ENG-0739505.

Updates needed Up date with OECD 2008/1 from Cpaper master file, has interpolations etc. Add charts on paper share and change in paper share

Theme Efficiency indicators in publishing allow smaller or less wealthy countries to better compete One can divide publications by population, GDP, or GERD (national R&D investment) One useful indicator is to divide publication share by GERD share For the larger economies this “relative efficiency” ki, has been fairly constant, which permits forecasts However, some smaller countries have high and increasing relative efficiencies

Outline Examples of several efficiency indicators with rating charts Interpretations of ki as an efficiency indicator Which countries have the greatest relative efficiencies? Which countries are most rapidly increasing their relative efficiencies? Why? Can other countries do the same? TBD.

Population Efficiencies in Papers/10,000 Countries with values above 5.0 shown, plus some large countries for comparison. OG is OECD Group. Fractional paper counts from NSF 2008. Population from OECD 2007/2.

GDP Efficiency in Papers / $ Billion Values above 15 plus some large countries for comparison. In 2005 current dollars with PPP weights. Source OECD 2007/2.

R&D Investment Efficiency in Papers / $ 1 million Values above 1.0 shown, plus some large countries for comparison. GERD in 2005 dollars with PPP weights. Source: OECD 2008/1.

Fastest growing paper share of OECD Group, plus some large countries Annual percent increase in share (5 year average). Not an efficiency, but an indicator where small countries can excel.

Review of Shelton Model National Publication Systems (The Black Box) Resources In Papers Out Multiple Linear Regression Is Used to Identify Which Inputs are Most Important

Regression Findings: In Producing Papers… Research investments are much more important than the number of researchers. Government investments are much more important than those from industry. Government investments in non-defense sectors are somewhat more important than their investment in defense. Not surprising to bibliometricians, but regression quantifies these statements. Causality can’t be proven, but strong associations can be found.

More Detailed Model of Publication System (Inside the Black Box) $ Inputs Papers Published p1 g1 US EU Journal Editors AT ROW G (total) P (total) National Research Systems -- Fairly Independent Highly Interdependent Paper Selection mi = pi/P Paper share wi = gi/G GERD share

A Simple Model for Country i mi = k iwi mi is share of papers published (fractional basis) wi is the share of GERD for the OECD Group k i is a "constant" of proportionality; it differs by country. k i is also the efficiency of country i in producing papers per $1 million in GERD, normalized by the OECD overall efficiency. ki = mi/wi = (pi/P)/(gi/G) = (pi/gi)/(P/G) For data in a single year the equation is an identity, but it is most useful over a range of years when k i is approximately constant

Relative efficiencies are fairly constant for the major players Now PRC is not so much less efficient than US, with OECD 2008/1 data.

Merit of ki as an efficiency indicator For most large economies ki is a (fairly) constant of proportionality that allows forecast of output publication share from input GERD share Using this model, a poster paper here shows that China will likely come to challenge U.S. and EU leadership within 10 years It is also the number of papers per $1 million of R&D investment, normalized over the whole set of countries. (Overall it took about $1.3 million by an OECD country to produce one paper in the SCI in 2005. Thus ki not only measures efficiency of one country, but compares it to others, with a normalization that shows relative changes to others with time

Forecasts of National Leadership

Where do OECD countries stand in relative efficiencies ki? Values above average (1.54) plus some large countries. OG (1.00) is the OECD Group.

Highest Relative Efficiencies

Rapidly increasing relative efficiencies 2001-2005 Plus Greece and Poland are both large and rapidly increasing

Original data, slides, and citations: http://itri2.org/Epaper/ Appendix Original data, slides, and citations: http://itri2.org/Epaper/