Scaling Factor and WCF impacts from current ALP profiles Previous presentation mentioned Buchan spells as climate variance not currently in the seasonal normal (and hence ALP) shape Theme Date Department Page 1

Impacts – Mid Feb 2009 Buchan spells usually 7th to 14th Feb Climate colder therefore ALP would be higher Currently needing to scale up over this period suggesting profiles understate demand – would be corrected by peaky ALP from EP2 SN

Impacts – Mid April 2009 Buchan spells usually 11th to 14th April Difference in level for WCF and scaling factor evident

Impacts – Mid May 2008 Buchan spells usually 9th to 14th April Again difference in WCF apparent Some 2008 impacts may be masked by issues with LDZ SND

Summary EP2 variation caused by climate model Differences in WCF and SF levels around particularly spiky periods suggest the current smooth ALP is not managing climate variation Current SF variation may be partly due to ALP smoothing suggesting EP2 will not necessarily be worse and could be better