Introduction to Theory Its not as boring and useless as you might think

What is theory? Not “ivory tower” BS that doesn’t apply to the “real world” Quite to the contrary: Maahs’ cardinal rule of theory: EVERY THEORY HAS A POLICY IMPLICATION Corollary: Every policy implication is derived from a theory

Definition of a Theory Set of statements that explain how and why concepts are related In our case, what set of concepts explain crime? Concept = abstract idea that can be measured or “operationalized”

How to recognize a good theory Empirical Support “Real world data” (observations) Survey or Experiment Other Criteria Scope Parsimony A good theory explains a lot with a little

Micro and Macro Micro level theories Macro level theories Why do some individuals have a higher probability of committing crimes than others? Biology, psychology, but also sociology Individual differences, but also environment Macro level theories Why do some aggregates have a higher crime rate than others? Mostly sociology, mostly “culture” or “social structure”

Barkan Example Explaining Bulimia and Anorexia Disorders Macro Micro Why “young women?” Why higher rates of these disorders in certain countries? Barbie doll culture? Micro Why, even in countries with high rates of the disorder, do most young women not have the disorder? Effective parenting, high self-esteem…

Establishing Causation X (Cause) precedes Y (effect) Causal ordering X statistically related to Y Correlation (need not be perfect) Relationship is not “spurious” How to rule out spuriousness? Experimental Designs Survey Research and Statistical Control

The Experimental Design Group Get “Treatment” ALL SUBJECTS RANDOM ASSIGNMENT MEASURE OUTCOME Control Group (Get “placebo”)

Statistical Control Barkan Example: Survey reveals that “pimple saturation” related to “time spent listening to rock music” What would you want to control for? “HOLDING CONSTANT” or “INDEPENDENT OF” Similar: Child abuse causes the abused kids to be violent themselves.

A Brief History of Criminological Theory Prior to 1700s, no real theory Humans as “depraved” Classical School (1750s-late 1800s) Age of enlightenment (Locke, Rousseau) Humans as “enlightened” (rational, hedonistic) Utilitarian Thinkers Beccaria (Italian Economist) On Crime and Punishment Bentham (England): focus on English justice system

What killed the Classical School? The percieved failure of classical school reforms Changing legal code did not “cure” crime Development of physical sciences Darwin, Galileo, Newton There are cause-effect relationships that can be deduced from observation and manipulation August Compte Apply this logic to the study of human behavior

The Positive School 1900-Present Criticims of Positive School Humans as “determined” Determined by what? Biology Psychology Sociology Criticims of Positive School Legal Definitions controlled by those in power Overly “deterministic” Criminals as “different” and “inferior”

Classical School II: Resurrection Social Context of the 1970s Perceived failure of rehabilitation “Neo-classical” theory Deterrence theory, Rational Choice theory, Routine Activities Theory These theories still compete with “positive” theories today.