Frank Glod, Carlo Duprel, and Michael Keenan* Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 LUXEMBOURG FORESIGHT: A ‘STANDARD’ EXERCISE IN A ‘PECULIAR’ CONTEXT? Frank Glod, Carlo Duprel, and Michael Keenan* Fonds National de la Recherche, Luxembourg *PREST, University of Manchester

The Luxembourg Context Total Surface: 2’586 km2 Inhabitants: 455’000 (39% non-Luxembourg) Multilingual Population: Luxembourgish, French, German, English GDP per capita: 56’600 EUR in 2005: 162 Banks, 366 insurance companies ARCELOR, CLT-UFA, SES-GLOBAL, Ceratizit, GoodYear, DuPont, Delphi, Teijin, TDK, Fanuc, … (2000 researchers) Amazon, AOL, Microsoft Public research Budget: 1999: ~15M€ (0.08 % of GDP) 2005: ~50M€ (0.35 % of GDP) 2009 : ~180M€ (~0.66% of GDP) 1 University (2000), 4 Public research centres, several other research institutions (500 persons) 'OECD’ reform and City of Science

Current issues Issue Points to be addressed by F. Improve Gouvernance (Performance contracts) Highlight priority areas for public investment Substitution of Sovereignty niches by competence niches Identify possible areas of interests Improve coordination between STI actors Aid dialogue Clarification of role of actors Identify means of support in priority areas Development of City of Science Inform on existing competence ‘clusters’ Building capacity and absorption of budget increase Highlight priority areas, capacity gaps and implementation issues

Objective of the Exercise New FNR programmes Identification of research domains in the public sector with socio-economic interest for Luxembourg 2 classes of priority Class 1: top national (3-5) priorities, heavily increased funding Class 2: slightly increased funding Funding at constant level for existing activities Scientific and political rationale for this choice of priorities Proposal of set of priorities to government in march 2007 Clarification and dissemination of strategic aim of FNR programmes among stakeholders Consolidation of communication networks amongst stakeholders

Phase 1 Internet Forum Interviews Diagnosis 60 major stakeholders FNR Programme Evaluation Building Strategic Scenarios Background data report Strategy Building Questionnaires > 30% response rate Priorities Building Mapping R&D in Luxembourg Exploratory Workshop FNR Board and Sci. Council meeting Data collection (General lack of data) Trends at international level Data analysis Phase 2 Priorities/Recommendations to the Ministries Young researchers workshop FNR programmes

Phase 2 Develop thematic recommendations of the Foresight Phase I into classified priorities 1 stakeholder meeting to discuss the Lisbon objective 2 meetings of expert panel (20 stakeholders national/internat. public/user/private) for each field: Physical Sciences and Engineering Social sciences and Humanities Law, Economy and Finance Environmental Sciences Life Sciences ICT 09/06 10/06 11/06 12/06 01/07 03/07 02/07 Launch/ S-WS WS_1 WS_2 Interim Report Final Report Input Papers

Conclusion Overall positive response to initiative Time constraint, goal oriented approach socialisation process neglected FNR mandated to conduct exercise although limited authority Focus on current issues, future-orientated thinking came short Expected results obtained Foresight seen as priority setting tool Confusion at level of objective: FNR programmes and/or National priorities? Pre-determinate Paths through parallel activities: STI reform and the City of Science

Particuliarities Small environment allowed almost exhaustive involvement of major stakeholders Limited baseline data available, Need for baseline apparent Data from rapidly changing/young environment difficult Parochial concerns and biases prevail The Foresight characterised by an immediate implementation into FNR programmes and Gouvernmental programme (STI reform) Unique position of allocating ‘new money’ and no immediate budgets cuts are to be expected Expansion to new promising areas for Luxembourg