Planning for climate change in nature reserve management plans Ben Le Bas & Simon Duffield, Natural England

The challenge

The challenge We did try for a demonstration purpose within the NERC Act but removed at one of the drafting stages

The challenge

The challenge

The challenge

Our approach Up to date, and updateable Consistent Both national and local Pragmatic Efficient

Our approach 1. Projected Climate Change 2. Impacts 4. Responses 3. Vulnerability Assessment 2. Impacts 1. Projected Climate Change

Step 1: What climate change? Which scenario? What duration?

Step 2: Projected impacts

Step 3: Vulnerability assessment Feature name Temperature Rainfall Extreme Events In Combination Confidence Eutrophic Standing Open Water Aggregation of non-breeding species Water vole Landscape - glacial hummocks and ridges Archaeological & historical features Economic use Community involvement Education Research Demonstration Public access Estate assets Feature name Temperature Rainfall Extreme Events In Combination Confidence Eutrophic Standing Open Water L M H Aggregation of non-breeding species Water vole Landscape - glacial hummocks and ridges Archaeological & historical features Economic use Community involvement Education Research Demonstration Public access Estate assets Key NNR features Main elements of climate change Record the confidence you have in the assessment, based on the available information and your understanding of the reserve

Step 3: Response

Aqualate Mere NNR

Aqualate Mere NNR Feature name Rainfall Temperature Extreme Events In combination Reasoning Confidence Eutrophic Standing Open Water H Mere already suffers from Algal Blooms. Temperature Increase would cause larger algal bloom events Aggregation of non-breeding species L M Passage Shoveler etc Wildfowl winter populations may decline as the birds winter further north in response to winter warming. However Increased winter temperature is likely to increase the overwinter survival rate Dystrophic standing open water Drought events would affect this area M22/M23 fen/rush pasture Water dependent habitat, Increased temp, leading to drought would be very detreimental. Increased flooding would prevent essential management activities taking place M27 mire, S4/S22 swamp/reed bed Water dependent habitat, Increased temp, leading to drought would be very detreimental. Increased flooding would prevent essential management activities taking place. Common otter Reduced water levels would adversely affect mammals such as water voles, otters Water vole Assemblage of breeding waders Reduced soil moisture could adversely influence breeding success or survival rates of ground-feeding bird species, particularly those which feed on invertebrates whose abundance is influenced by soil moisture or those that require moist, easily penetrable soils to get food. Invertebrate assemblage: Coleoptera   Quaternary geology W6 alder woodland Reduced water levels may impact of tree growth. Stressed trees more susceptible to pests and diseases. Breeding grey heron Drought may impact Fish populations Breeding bird assemblage Species dependent, some may be unaffected, some new species may even start breeding here. Earlier spring may impact on inverterbrate availability for chicks. Summer flooding is already affecting breeding birds in the reedbed e.g. Reed warblers. Bat populations Direct links have been found between summer precipitation and survival of bat species, with higher precipitation associated with greater insect abundance and drier springs and summers having a negative effect on population numbers Warmer winter will mean reduced hibernation period

Martin Down NNR

Martin Down NNR

Teesmouth NNR

Teesmouth NNR

Responses Examples from the adaptation manual Manage veteran trees to reduce the crown to root ratio, and improve protection for individual veteran trees In treeless river reaches, optimise riparian tree cover to provide patchy light and shade. This provides the best mosaic of biotopes, an ample supply of woody debris and leaf litter, and provides buffering against rising water temperatures, shading the water and lowering temperature on sunny days. The isolated nature of flushes means that the translocation of species from other sites may be a viable adaptation option where natural colonisation is unlikely. Encourage structural diversity within areas of blanket bog by, for example, adjusting grazing levels and using a range of species, breeds, ages and sizes of animal.

And at the site level…

Conclusions A simple approach combining skills of local and national staff More information required eg species CMSi is our tool to apply it, share it and record it